Dry Solution through the Holiday.

Holy back peddling, Batman!  Or, maybe not.  Way back in September, fall forecasts were being thrown out, many of them calling for no significant rain before mid December.  So far, so good.  While the mid term models have been quite bullish just a short time ago, the short term solutions are all dry.  And the mid and long term have dried up, with no significant rain through the coming holiday.  Now, we have seen how this whole thing can flip around in the short term, but we have agreement with the seasonal forecast so far.  Don't see why we should start doubting it now.  Continue with your outside projects.  Hopefully, you have gotten a bit more organized due to my wet scare last week, and will really be ready to wrap it for when the rain does come.  I've extended by deadline to November 23rd.  After that I need to spend a few days preparing our turkey feast.  But, for now, lets take a look at the coming week.

Standard Shortboard.

Small dateline swell will continue to ease on Tuesday morning, and condition remain pretty nice in the morning.  Clouds to start the day will clear and we could be warming up into the mid to upper 60s.  Another beautiful day along the central California coast.  Wednesday could be a scourcher, and if you find the right spot, at the right time, and have a little bit of luck, you could be sitting in some 70F sunshine for humpday.  And it will likely be the peak of the warmth, as we see a very slow decline over the weekend, with next Monday in the mid 60s.  Plenty of sunshine, and mostly light winds with some afternoon breezes.  Tuesday and Friday look like they have the most wind, but nothing stormy.

If you are a snow slider, and are looking toward the Thanksgiving holiday as a time where you might give it a go, things are looking less than stellar.  There is some snow on the ground at the higher elevations, but not a solid snow pack at resort levels.  Right now over night lows have just barely been reaching down into the snow making realms, so there is limited potential to blow snow.  Limited is not none.  Expect the big groomer resorts (Northstar and Heavenly) to have some terrain open.  A few other places should as well.  Kirkwood is making a go of it and had a chance to blow some snow about a week ago.  Just don't expect a whole bunch, if any, off piste.

For now, it looks like great fall weather on tap here in Santa Cruz.  Low to mid 40s in the very early morning hours, mid to upper 60s in the afternoons.  Sunshine.  Light winds.  In fact, this is a great time to put in a winter garden.  If this mild weather actually holds out through mid December, those seedlings could really get a nice foot hold and produce this winter.  I'm picking up my Brussles Sprouts in a few days.  Wish me luck.