Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Big jumbled surf coming for Turkey Day, and confidence building for a wet solution mid next week.

Another quick one as I take a break in packing the car for the holiday trip to the man made snow.  If you are wondering, a few resorts in Tahoe have opened on primarily man made snow with limited runs.  Mammoth is in a bet better condition, but we need a big snow to really get going up there.  On the other hand, weather looks great for the long weekend, and it is time to make some snowmen and hit the slopes.  Meanwhile, down here in Santa Cruz, the models shift west again with the storm, keeping it well off shore, and us quite dry.  Still, maybe some showers.  These cut off lows are very finicky.

Sparrow nest, nestled into the sand stone cliffs.  4 Mile Beach, Santa Cruz

Bigger news would be the increasing wind swell and mid period swell tomorrow, with a sizable swell showing up on Thanksgiving.  All that water moving about is going to make for some jumbled conditions, but with the storm off shore and too our south, we could see some off shore breezes cleaning things up.  And considering how poor the surf has been lately, this looks to be a fun event.  Due to the speed of the storm, the waves should be short lived and much smaller by Saturday.  Don't worry, another long period WNW could be here by Sunday.

A significant seasonal type change continues to be forecast for mid next week.  Being significant seasonal change type stuff, which the models always have difficulty in forecasting accuracy, and the shift still being a week out, we are not ready to forecast with much confidence as to the timing.  But, that said, models continue to suggest a cold trough settling down, with a good portion over water, into our region.  That would me a good dose of rain, a chill and abundant snow.  This could be the one to start off the season folks.  Hope you have the gutters cleaned, and the yard ready for winter.

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