Sunday, November 17, 2013

Getting Progressive, Eh?

GFS comes around to wetter solution, while the Canadian holds.  Euro backs off a touch.  But all three have us wet next week, with what is looking like the first multi day weather system of the season.  This is no super storm coming, but the roads are going to be wet, and water may begin to run in the streets.  Hard to tell, as out ground is super dry right now and might just suck it all in like a brand new sponge.  Rain looks to be fairly light through the period, but with several days of rain in the forecast, we could see a bit of accumulation.  Bullseye is looking to be in Humboldt with over three inches.  Tahoe north could hit an inch plus, with the south side getting less.  Down here in Santa Cruz we are looking at about an half inch, with more likely in select spots in the coastal mountains.  Let's look at the day to day.

Even the clouds around here are pretty sweet.  Some where above Santa Cruz.

Get out there today, as the sun is out and the weather is just fine.  It is about perfect out there for that yard work.  I for one need to get up and look at the gutters today.  I have not been lazy folks.  I've been squeezing every last bit out of the dry season and staying on top of my projects.  I've just have not taken the time to clean those gutters.  Getting to that today.  High in the low 60s.  Chilly over night, but a nice day again on Monday.  Similar to today.   By evening things start to turn as clouds begin to move in with slightly cooler air.  Rain is likely in the north bay overnight, with showers moving south east through the morning hours.  The Route 17 commute could be dry Tuesday morning, but it looks like we should have wet roads by the evening commute.  The light winds from Monday will shift southerly and moderate.  This is not a very windy system.  Showers and south breezes continue into Wednesday.
Current model runs have us drying out by Thursday, but showers continue to our north and in the Sierra.  Another slight shift in the forecast could keep us wet.  OTOH, a slight shift in the other direction could dry us out earlier.  By Friday, high pressure noses in and we will be back up into the upper 60s with sunshine.  Right now it looks like a real nice weekend coming up next.  And the mid term has the holiday period relatively dry, and perhaps a bit crisp.  More on that as we approach.

EDIT:  Current GFS model has some moisture kicking back around the low and hitting us on Thursday.  I'll take a look at the runs later today and tomorrow morning and post back up here.  Could be that we see a three day wet event.  Winter is knocking at the door.

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