Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Confidence high for warm rain event.

The good news is it is going to rain.  The bad news is that is it is going to happen over the coming weekend.  I guess that is just the bummer news.  The bad news is that it is going to be warm with rain up to 8-10 thousand feet, so we are not going to see much benefit to the existing snowpack. In fact, we might see a depletion. Of course, that will all depend on the storm track.  Perhaps, we could get lucky.  But first, let us look at the day to day.  Things have been feeling a bit cooler lately.  Sunday morning was chilly.  Although, today we started off a bit warmer, thanks due to some light cloud cover that is likely a touch of marine layer.  Hey, sometime fog is your friend.  Anyway, today will warm up in to the mid to upper 60s. Just like yesterday.  Wednesday, we likely will start the day of with a deeper marine layer, and that will suppress warming a touch.  Low 60s.  South winds develop late.  By Thursday we begin looking at rain pushing into the northern portions of the state.  And while they have not been quite as parched as we have this last month, it has been pretty damn dry up there as well.  A slight reprieve.

Weathered Oak.  Pogonip, Santa Cruz.

Ya know, they say climate change will look like we are having more extremes.  Well, some part some the state are looking at getting over ten inches of rain from this coming system.  And the past month plus has been nearly completely dry.  Makes you wonder, eh?  So.  Each of the major models have slight variations on the coming days, but they all suggest copious rains for the heart of the system.  The southern edge looks like it will be right around Monterey Bay, with heavy precip to the north, and light precip a little bit to the south.  No rain for SoCal with this one.  At least early.  So here is my Tuesday morning guess on timing.  Rain moves through the North Bay late on Thursday, and will slowly push south and east through the day.  Slowly, as it will be working hard to push our high pressure system out.  And that will allow for a hell of a lot of warm air to move in underneath it.  Afternoon temps will rise back up into the mid to upper 60s, lifting the snow levels to above pass level.  So yeah, expect some serious river flow and flooding in the foot hills and central valley.

Down here, I'd expect rain to start moving through San Francisco and south along the peninsula on Friday.  Depending on how hard the high pressure pushes back, we could see rain developing from mid morning, through late evening.  I'll guess at about noon.  Saturday morning the models suggest the system finally pours onshore and we could see our heaviest precipitation in the very early morning hours.  Warm air continues.  Rain continues through the afternoon, although the heaviest precip should be moving south toward Point Conception.

A second round arrives on Sunday with more rain.  This morning's run suggest it is slightly cooler, but not cold.  And slightly drier.  After that we see another giant high pressure setting up.  Looks like we get a quick one-two punch and then back to the same ole same ole.  Updates to come.

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