Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Sixteen Point Three Inches

16.3" is the bullseye on this mornings GFS 5 Day precipitation totals model.  That is quite a bit north of here, along the California coastal range, near Cape Mendencino.  Shasta is looking at eight or so inches of precipitation.  And this morning's run gives us a bigger does of about two inches in town and three inches in the mountains.  So yeah, a good dose of water is on the way.  Otherwise, not a whole lot of change since yesterday.  Today that marine layer seems to be sticking around, with a solid south flow having developed earlier this morning.  Temperatures remain cool and it is likely we will only reach about 60F today.  Perhaps a slightly better chance at seeing some sun and additional warming tomorrow, but basically a similiar day.  By Friday morning we will see an increasing chance for rain.  Still thinking a later morning to mid day start time.  Here is what ya'll should be thinking about.

Tonight and tomorrow are you last chance for sunset weather.  Get out.  It is gonna rain folks.

The afternoon commute on Friday is likely to be wet, and the first wet commute since before the holidays.  That means there has been enough time to oil gather on the road surface.  That means it will be pretty damn slippery out there.  And seeing that it takes about 20 days of dry weather for most people to seem to lose their wet weather driving skills, there will be accidents out there.  Perhaps head home a bit early, or work a bit late, to avoid the worst of it.  Also, you should really be thinking about prepping your yard and home.  Get things inside, tied down, shut up, packed away, etc.  Once this thing moves in, it is going to be furious.  Strong, gusty southwest winds could build to over 50 mph, especially along coastal ridges.  Here in town I'd expect a few gust over 25 mph.  And it is going to be wet.  I'd not be surprised if we saw a good inch along the West Side slope between nightfall Friday and day break Saturday.  Certainly by nightfall Saturday.  Speaking of Saturday, it will start off quite wet, and will end just slightly wet.  Looks like we should get a brief break in between the systems.  Maybe even a few stars Saturday night.

Round two arrives mid day on Sunday.  A little less rain with this one is currently forecast.  Move a little bit quicker too.  But showers likely will linger through at least mid day Monday, and we could see some significant rains Sunday night.  So yeah, prepare for a slow Monday morning commute.  And keep an eye for localized flooding.  By Monday morning, we could see the soil at capacity again, for the first time in over a month.  More to come, check back, and keep posted.

No comments:

Post a Comment