Monday, February 23, 2015

Pattern trying to change

Well, that cold trough did push west.  And that brought some cold weather to the mountains.  It is cooler here as well, but just a bit.  OTOH, it was not much of a precipitation maker for the northern half of the state.  SoCal is going to get some, as the low pressure organizes on its trip south.  A foot or more of snow is predicted on San Jacinto, high above the Palm Springs desert.  Go figure.  And just to note, that cold we felt on Saturday was more due to a heavy marine layer and onshore breezes than to atmospheric cooling.  Anyway, here is our lookout for the week ahead. Slight warming through the middle of the week.  Highs in the low 60s creep up into the mid 60s.  Lows overnight in the low 40s creep up to the upper 40s.  And then with some luck, late in the week, we begin to see a chance for some rain.

The surf that has been good all month is winding up.  Get it over the next few days before it goes flat.

Earlier model runs suggested a significant storm pushing in.  Recent runs suggest a mild storm.  Timing wise, it looks like a Saturday system mostly.  We will need to get a bit closer to get a better handle on the exact timing, duration and intensity.  Ten days out the models have amore significant system, and they are suggesting a return to a wetter pattern.  Generally speaking, I do not have a lot of confidence in the models, but my gut continues to tell me we are in for a nice wet March.  And we sure do need it.  For now, plan on a pleasant week, and a chance for a showery day on Saturday.  And maybe start getting prepared for prolonged wet period starting some time after that.  I'll get more details posted up tomorrow.

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