Friday, February 6, 2015

Pre Storm Show.

Did you get to see the sunrise this morning?  It was pretty damn awesome, with fast moving clouds and a hot pink light show.  Good stuff to be sure.  That wind has been whipping since late yesterday.  And while things did feel real chilly in the park yesterday afternoon, we are still looking at a predominately warm system.  Strong south west winds are bringing in warm lifting aloft.  And while this is no drought buster, it is sure looking to making a significant dent.  GFS is wetter yet with this morning's run.  The Shasta area is forecast to receive 17.9 inches of precipitation, with 7-10 inches along the Sierra Crest as far south as Mammoth Lakes.  Seven inches in the Santa Lucia.  We are still looking at 2-3 here in town and 3-5 in the local hills.  The past few days have seen the forecast push further south as well, although SoCal is still supposed to remain bone dry.  And warm.  As these systems will get shuttled north after passing onshore.

Clouds aloft.  Wilder Ranch State Park in Santa Cruz.

Rain will fill in mid day.  It is already raining in Marin.  This afternoon and evening will see some heavy rains, at times in excess of a quarter inch per hour.  That can create some flash flooding conditions, as the earth can have a hard time absorbing water that fast.  Certainly expect some shallow urban flooding and moving water.  By sunrise, the heaviest rain will be over, but we can expect fairly continuous rain through the morning hours on Saturday.  By afternoon, we will begin to see it turn more showery, and we will be getting some breaks.  The next system is looking to come onshore from the west on Sunday.  We may see a break in the rain Sunday morning, but by mid day, things will be quite wet again.  This system is looking a touch cooler as well, with this morning's model run.  It remains a fast mover, but it still looks to drop an inch or so of rain here in town, before moving east on Monday.

Monday night should be the coldest of the period, dropping down into the low 40s.  By Tuesday, high pressure begins to build back in, but it sets up more to our north and west.  Mid 60s expected for next week.  And a return to mostly sunshine.  Enjoy the rain.

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