Thursday, October 22, 2015

Gaining confidence.

In a way, confidence is growing for a wet solution a week out.  OTOH, confidence is waning for an actual pattern change, and this is looking more like a one shot kind of thing.  This morning's forecast has an coastal slider, coming in low and south, with the heaviest precipitation from Monterey south.  Next Wednesday evening.  Nothing too exciting other than it being late October after four dry seasons.  And I guess this storm being the remnants of the first solid NPAC system of the season, with an even larger one behind it as the first one comes ashore.  What happens to that second one is way to far out to even ponder about.

Gone are the dog days of summer; here comes the fall.  Crescent Beach, Wells, Maine.

Not much change in the short term other than the high pressure is not expected to rebound quite as well.  After today, the afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 70s.  And then hover there.  Weaker high means more fog and clouds.  Still, the winds are looking pretty damn slack, with perhaps the strongest afternoon breeze on Saturday, peaking at less than 10 knots.  So a nice week of weather, with a chance for dome rain next Wednesday.  More on that as it approaches.  You may want to take this coming weekend to prepare things.  While I don't see a flip switch pattern change happening, a lot can change in 7 days on the fall.  This next one actually could carry some significant rains with it, and a slight jog 50 miles north from the current track would bring a decent soaking to our county.

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