Models align over night and startle the audience with nearly every single one moving from a torpid consolidated system to something more elongated, and swift. Still likely to see some showers between Sunday evening and Monday noon, but what I described yesterday as a jump from the OR coast to the Sierra is almost what we are now seeing. I would just amend "Sierra" to "West Slope". If this thing turns into a long N-S axis, we won't see much spillover into the Tahoe Basin. Regardless, we are still looking at a moderate rain fall for much of the northern portion of the state. Nothing drought busting, but exciting none the less. In the meantime, enjoy some all time weather.
The rest of today looks nice. It was very warm on the school yard at Bay View for the Halloween Parade. Not quite 80F. The near shore winds look light right now, but there is still a brisk wind out on the buoys. That could move inland, and would cool us a good bit. Tomorrow looks like more of the same, but we might see a slightly cooler afternoon. So, not quite 80F. Sunday drops back down to about 70F, as the peak temperature of the day will be just before the arrival of a cold front. Depending on when that front arrives, warming could be suppressed during the afternoon. And then that chance of rain thing in the evening.
I'm going with a decent chance of some light showery patterns, with a slight chance of actual rain in convective stuff getting caught on the local hills. But most of the energy and moisture will be north and east. South winds. Strong at times. Everything moves out quickly, so Monday will see breaking clouds and remain cool in the upper 60s. We could be back into the 70s by Wednesday, with warming possible for Friday. It kind of looks like the quicker passing of the storm will allow warmer air back in sooner than it looked yesterday. It is like Mother Nature is rejecting winter and staying solidly in autumn. More fine weather next week as early as Tuesday. Not that Sunday and Monday will be that bad. In fact, they will likely have the best sunsets of the week. And perhaps the biggest surf, if a bit jumbled and piled up.