Dubious.

Currently the GFS calls for 3.74" of precipitation centered around Lake Tahoe.  Even with the warm start, that would amount to feet of snow along the peaks of the crest.  No one is believing that.  This same model run brings a wide spread rain fall across the Santa Cruz area.  Up to a quarter inch.  Up to a half inch in SF.  NWS has backed away from 100% chance of precip tonight, to just an 80% chance.  The stars are out.  A swath of moisture is moving ashore around Pt. Arena, but there has been little southward movement today.  In fact, the moderate north west breeze that continued through the morning hours suggest the center of this thing moved more east than south today.  Although this evening, those winds have backed off and the buoys just to our north have begun to see a light southwest flow, suggesting that something is moving south.  Let just plan for a chance of rain during the next 24 hours, with the greatest likelihood being before sunrise on Monday.    Just keep an eye on the sky when you head out in the morning.  And lets hope Tahoe get pounded with a three foot dump.

Monday will be similiar to today.  If the sun is out, it will be warm.  And breezy regardless.  More on the rest of the week tomorrow.