Sunday, November 22, 2015

Okay, so waffles...

The past three runs have moved the center of the low west, allowing for a wetter solution.  Not deluge wet, but wetter.  Real good news for mountain snow.  Accumulations still look lighter in town, but the local hillsides could collect some decent amounts of water.  Freezing levels drop from about 7000 feet on Tuesday morning to just about 3400' feet in the afternoon here on the coast.  This is the period with the greatest likelihood of rain.  As few peaks pass that elevation, there will not be a big chance for local snowy peaks.  Although, if precipitation continues overnight, we could see the freezing level drop down below 1500', and in the morning, the bay would be rime rimed.

The Santa Cruz Boardwalk is open on Black Friday.  Have a season pass?  Bring a friend for free.

Hard to call this one, as the models keep going back and forth.  But the odd thing is that different models are tending to coordinate their changing prognosis.  The Canadian and Euro back peddled to the wetter solution yesterday, and the GFS was coming on board by evening.  I'll keep watching to see if they have settled on the current track, will move further west and deliver a cold deluge, or shift back east and dry us out and deliver a very strong cold wind.  Keep tuned.  Oh, and that undercutting system we saw a few days ago?  Yup, it is back in the game.  So we could see a second round of rain, albeit much warmer, for the weekend.  As of now, the holiday looks quite nice, with a very crisp morning and mild afternoon.

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