Thursday, November 19, 2015

Confidence building exercises

We are up in the mountains this morning.  Needed to take a day to play in the snow and stack some wood at my friend's cabin.  It is winter up here, but today will be a mild one.  Nice sun.  Watching, watching, watching the models for next week.  Yesterday, the noon and 6pm runs sowed a return of a blocking that keeps the warm rain offshore the weekend after Thanksgiving.  They also suggested a later onset to the rain, and less of it.  But a hell of a lot of coldness.  Like maybe freezing levels on the local hills cold.  Anyway, the 6am run is looking still quite cold, but with heavier precip.  Given the latest data, rain would start mid day on Tuesday, stay steady through Wednesday afternoon, with showery weather for the holiday.  Oh, and that warm storm finally gets under the high for Sunday.  But by then it will be a little less wet, and a little less warm.  Time will tell, but confidence is building for a wet solution middle of next week.  Cool, eh?

Little peeler at Crescent Beach, Wells, Maine.

Approaching 70F today,  Might not quite get there, but it will be close.  Even closer on Friday.  No real change to the outlook through Monday.  Stay tuned as we could be seeing some fun weather less than a week out.

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