Thursday, November 12, 2015

While we avoid Armageddon, Seattle may not.

When crazy numbers get thrown out there by computer models, it is often best to question their validity.  So when the GFS forecasts 18.8" of rain for the area just north of Seattle, and 24.3" for the Olympic Peninsula, I question them.  Regardless of their pure accuracy, a shit ton of rain is going to fall in the PNW over the next week.  Way down here in Santa Cruz we will receive a much more manageable amount. Yesterday's forecast is still on track, with the only update being that it looks like the rain will likely begin to fall by Saturday evening.  Something to monitor, because if it speeds up any more we could be having rain during the day.  The GFS has us between a quarter and a half inch right now.  Actually looking at the lower side of that.  But based on the last minute changes to the last two systems, we know a lot can change in a few days.

Five major ski resorts, plus Rose and Boreal are opening this weekend.  It is time to get your schuss on.  If you are heading up, please remind yourselves that it is early season, with lots of snow snakes and other hazards out there.  Play it safe.  It is going to be a nice, long, good season.  Don't go replacing an ACL before turkey day.  Also this weekend, we see another decent long period swell arriving.  That looks fun, but with the weather arriving late Saturday, conditions could be a challenge.   More on the approaching system tomorrow.  Get out there today and enjoy the outdoors.  We hiked the Pogonip yesterday and it was gorgeous.

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