Saturday, November 21, 2015

Bonanza. And the Crash.

A beautiful warm autumn day on tap out there.  Absolutely stunning with temps soaring into the mid 70s across many parts of town.  A reading of 73F on West Cliff, 78F on Walnut/King, and a whopping 83F reported in Scotts Valley at 1:35PM on November 21st.  Toasty.  Try to get outside today and tomorrow to enjoy some of this fine, fine weather.  Sunday should be just as awesome.  Oh my goodness this is some nice weather.  Next system upstream is poised to begin effecting our region as early as Monday.  The only thing you will notice that is different on Monday, is that the afternoon high will be more seasonable, and in the upper 60s.  We do need to be reasonable.  And don't worry, things will average out for the week to be much, much colder than normal.

Not cooler, colder.  Seriously cold.  Like cold snap in February cold.  As in freezing cold.  In the local hills, where the days time high will be a bit warmer than it is on the coastal plain, and the night time lows a bit cooler, we could see a swing of over 60 degree Fahrenheit from this afternoon through Thursday morning.  Yup, as in dropping into the upper 20s.  So.  Today I was chatting it up about how it might snow in Santa Cruz next week.  Not likely to happen.  Here is what is likely to happen.

This wonderful high pressure that we are enjoying this weekend, will cruise on up and out toward Alaska, allowing a cold arctic low pressure to move south behind it on Monday.  Our temps will cool a bit, but this system will still be in the very north eastern portion of the Gulf of Alaska.  Unfortunately (if you like snow and rain), the high is not headed to Kodiak, and more toward Seward, and the low pressure will move across land well before getting to California.  Because of that we will see very light precipitation here in town.  We are still three days out, and these storm tracks can easily shift a few hundred miles.  A few hundred miles west, and we get the center over water, and we get hammered with cold rain, and local snow.  How cool would that be?

But what looks like is going to happen (and all the models have trended in this direction over the last 36-48 hours) is that we will see a cold front arrive on Tuesday with some very light and sporadic showers.  And cold air.  Highs do not get out of the upper 50s.  Overnight lows drop to about 40F.  Wednesday we see continued chances for showers and a cold day with the high in the mid 50s.  Thursday morning will see near freezing temperatures in town.  Let us call it 35F.  It stays cold through Friday with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

With some luck we will see a bit of snow fall on the local mountains, but it will probably be washed around by any mid day rain on Wednesday.  Currently it does not look like it will precipitate on Wednesday night, but if it does, it could set the Monterey Bay up for a spectacular Thanksgiving Day sunrise.  Nothing better than a snow rimmed bay.

I'll do my best over the next few days to track this and post up.  Likely I'll be brief with updates, as I'll be busy preparing for the holiday.  It is one of our favorites.  Getting together with family and eating is what we do best.  Oh, and if suddenly this things takes a big turn to the wetter side, I will be certain writing about it.  Go out and enjoy this gorgeous Santa Cruz weekend.

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