|Good weekend for riding the Dipper coming up.|
And it will be a very cold front. Models keep flipping and the last four runs (24 hours) have brought the lows center more over land, picking up much less water. Essentially, this would be a much dryer pattern for us. But still very cold. We are now 4-6 days out, so the models will begin to settle on a solution. We will need to watch the next 36 hours of model runs closely. By Sunday we should have a good idea of what this storm is going to look like. We need water, and I want more snow, so I hope for a wet solution. Those of you entertaining in your homes, or traveling on Wednesday, perhaps prefer a dryer solution. What is for certain is that it is going to get cold. By Tuesday, the high in Santa Cruz will barely get into the 60s. Wednesday and Thanksgiving will stay in the mid to upper 50s. Lows will drop into the 30s by Thanksgiving morning.
This will be the coldest weather of the year yet. Be sure to make sure your heater works. Protect your plants, even if you do not live in a frost prone area. As this thing develops, we might see even colder air. I would not be totally surprised if you have some snow in your yard come Thursday morning. What a Thanksgiving treat. Likely the local mountains will have a snow cap.
At this point, I am going to hold off on any prediction about when rain will start, how long it will last and how much we will get. I'll just point out that the period from late Monday night through Thursday morning all have potential for rain. And as it stands now, it looks like the warm, wet system for next weekend will fall apart before coming ashore south of us. Something to watch.