Big changes coming for the holiday week.

Well, there are two things that are for certain.  First, that it will be getting much colder by the middle of next week, and second, that this coming weekend will have some stellar weather.  We will start with the next few days.  Mild morning out there right now, with temps hanging in the upper 40s.  They will shortly move into and through the 50s, with a high today in the upper 60s.  The weekend looks even warmer, with many areas of town moving into the lower 70s.  This is not a major warming event, so expect areas directly on the ocean to be a bit cooler.  Still, very nice.  Throw in a nice off shore flow and all that we are missing are the waves.  Not much for those this coming weekend.  Just some weak, small, northerly wind swell, but at least it will be clean.  And really, it won't matter that much as the weather will be just perfect autumnal bliss.  Monday will be similiar, but a touch cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s ahead of a cold front that will arrive on Tuesday.

Good weekend for riding the Dipper coming up.

And it will be a very cold front.  Models keep flipping and the last four runs (24 hours) have brought the lows center more over land, picking up much less water.  Essentially, this would be a much dryer pattern for us.  But still very cold.  We are now 4-6 days out, so the models will begin to settle on a solution.  We will need to watch the next 36 hours of model runs closely.  By Sunday we should have a good idea of what this storm is going to look like.  We need water, and I want more snow, so I hope for a wet solution.  Those of you entertaining in your homes, or traveling on Wednesday, perhaps prefer a dryer solution.  What is for certain is that it is going to get cold.  By Tuesday, the high in Santa Cruz will barely get into the 60s.  Wednesday and Thanksgiving will stay in the mid to upper 50s.  Lows will drop into the 30s by Thanksgiving morning.

This will be the coldest weather of the year yet.  Be sure to make sure your heater works.  Protect your plants, even if you do not live in a frost prone area.  As this thing develops, we might see even colder air. I would not be totally surprised if you have some snow in your yard come Thursday morning.  What a Thanksgiving treat.  Likely the local mountains will have a snow cap.

At this point, I am going to hold off on any prediction about when rain will start, how long it will last and how much we will get.  I'll just point out that the period from late Monday night through Thursday morning all have potential for rain.  And as it stands now, it looks like the warm, wet system for next weekend will fall apart before coming ashore south of us.  Something to watch.