Wednesday, November 18, 2015


There is not much of a point looking too closely at the details of the projected storm for next week at this time.  We are still 6-7 days out.  That range is due to the fact the projected arrival time vacillates a bit from run to run.  The important thing is that they continue to remain wet.  So that is part of the news.  I think I'll take advantage of this break in the excitement to talk about something else.  For now, the forecast track remains the same.  This morning the low was just about 44F on the west side.  Chilly, but not too cold.  Upper 60s this afternoon and for the rest of the week, with a chance of very low 70s Thursday through Saturday.  Then back into the upper 60s Sunday and Monday.  After that we will be looking at the possibility of a developing heavy rain event.

The beach life.  A little chilly out there right now, so hope this warms you up.  4 Mile Beach, Santa Cruz.

What I wanted to do is briefly look at the past three storms.  There has been a lot of talk of an El Nino winter, and many people think that it has started.  The general assumption is that the trend of rain once a week was fuels by the baby boy.  Not true.  The fact is that during the last month the El Nino signal had been suppressed by other influences, and it was this suppression that allowed for some early season rain.  Typically a strong El Nino will bring very heavy and concentrated rains, but not until the core of the winter.  As in January through March.  That is not to say that an El Nino can't bring rain earlier, and in fact I am watching a system to arrive late next week that carries the El Nino signature.  It is warm and coming in from the west at lower latitudes.  Some model runs have this bulldozing us next weekend and others keep it blocked by a high pressure bank until it weakens significantly.  At ten days out it is only a curiosity.  But the point is, there were other factors at play the last few weeks.

No comments:

Post a Comment