Thursday, February 25, 2016


More swell is on the way.  This round just as large, if not larger.  Shifted slightly north of west, instead of slightly south.  Light morning breezes, with a moderate high tide mid day, makes for some nice conditions.  This next round will begin arriving in the morning Friday, and filling in through the afternoon.  Saturday morning we will still be seeing some plus size and long periods.    It could be a very good morning of surf with the tide filling in from 1.5' at about 7AM. Might even allow you to sleep in a little bit if you are hitting a spot that likes a bit more water.  High tide will top out around 1PM at just over three and half feet.  So, if your spot likes a fair amount of water, you might want to sleep in until mid day.  It does look like there will be some northwest breezes though, so earlier will be lighter.  But you might end up cloistered behind headlands at sunrise anyway.  So.  What is interesting is how these swell are tied to our weather.

Mt. Tallac.   President's Day morning. 

Currently we have this fat high pressure on us.  Last week, a system finally punched through it, and brought the state rain.  But the storm did little in the sense of displacing this shield of sunshine.  That is pretty typical around here in winter.  We need a full on shift of this high pressure to see a return to wet weather.  In the meantime, low pressure systems spin across the Pacific, generating swell, and getting bounced north well off shore.  Shield of sunshine.  This looks to continue.  In fact, these two swell producers will arrive in our region on Friday night and Sunday night.  Both looking to get pushed way north, as they weaken, and dissipate.  This will create gradients, and stronger northwest breezes for Saturday, and again Monday.  We may see some clouds.  Points north will get some lighter rain.  Off chance we see precipitation along the Sierra Crest.  It will be cooler over the weekend as well, with a rebound into the 70s likely on Tuesday.  All this ahead of a possible door opening to begin later next week.

The GFS has been fairly bullish in forecasting a return to storm train conditions.  Still over a week out, so, little confidence when looking at this single model.  Yet, it has me wanting to look at others when I get a chance to hopefully this evening.  The seven to fourteen day track would best be described as quite wet, with the high moving well north, and the typical storm undercutting of an El Nino finally soaking the state.  One can only hope.

Oh - the Eddie ran today.  Check it out.  I have not yet had a chance to myself, but I heard there was some fun viewing.  That, and NBs was kind of crazy yesterday morning.  Always good to get the heart rate up.

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