|The mighty San Lorenzo. Photo: Ed Schuhl, Cohabitat Building.|
Since Sunday, we have collected 7.37 inches of rain in Scotts Valley, and over 8 inches at the summit. Today and tomorrow morning we are in for a little break. Light misty drizzle could continue today, but not expecting much more than a few tenths of an inch. We could see a few moderate squalls. It is warm out there, with lows never dipping below 56F last night on the west side. Pin pointing when the rain will come back in is not easy. The GFS models are suggesting a break until mid day Thursday. The NWS service is forecasting heavy rain returning tonight after 10PM. That is a pretty big gap. I'll split the difference and say that heavy rains will move in early tomorrow morning. Caveat here is we may see a mild morning. Regardless, we are looking at one to several inches of more rain by the end of day Friday. There is potential here for a a five day total of nearly 10 inches of precipitation. There is potential here for a record breaking year. Just read about that in the long term.
This weekend is going to be awesome. The storm moves south on Friday, hitting the drought stricken portion of the state (we can say that now). Mid to upper 60s warming to low 70s on Monday. We could be looking at 5-7 days of sunshine. Yipee! After that there is a a lot of agreement on the models that we could return to a very wet and wild, and possibly cold run of weather. Winter is here. I would seriously take this coming week to dry off, and get some sunshine on your skin. Prep, and prepare, as this next round will be falling on this supersaturated soil, with our rivers and lakes already filled. We've been lucky in my neighborhood with only one brief power outage this season. That can't last for ever.
Highway 17 is has opened back up today, after closing due to a massive mudslide yesterday. Many commuters spent the night in San Jose as Highways 9 and 152 closed as well. Travel over the mountain on back roads is not safe during these systems, so please stay safe when we see these closures. A large truck was hit by the Highway 17 landslide and road over the barrier into the opposite lane. Serious power here. Plan for traffic delays on Friday.