Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Four Before Sunrise.

It is really hard to track the rain fall as gauges seem to be going down daily.  We recorded several inches yesterday day her on the west side and as of 6:30 this morning the same gauge is recording another 10 inches.  That is not happening.  It has been raining hard, but not like that.  The Scotts Valley gauge is now totaling 3.75 inches since yesterday morning.  That seems more like it.  Near the summit, the total is exactly four inches.  It is currently 57F on the westside.  A very warm night.  Winds have not been that bad, with gusts to near 20mph in town, and up to 30mph near the summit, and up to 40mph at Long Marine Lab.  Could be worse.

Rain continues today.  NWS calling for one to two more inches.  We have already received a lot.  Looking at the infrared and water vapor, it looks like more is in fact streaming in.  Plan for a very very wet day, with the potential for some real flooding to occur.  Use extra caution on the mountain roads, and plan for delays.  This is a doozie of a day.  We might exceed a half foot of rain in a 48 hour period.  At this point we have received close to four inches in less than 15 hours.  Onto already saturated soils.  There is literally no where for the water to go except across the surface.

The aim of this AR event will remain centered near us through the daylight hours today.  We may see a lighter period of rain through the first half of the day, with a resurgence from noon to sunset.  The GFS is calling for another 3-4 inches by noon Wednesday.  These forecasts are insane.  Anyway, heavier rains in the afternoon, then the heaviest precip begins to shift south.  By sunrise on Wednesday, we should see just some light, and sporadic rain.  We could see a complete break in the rain by night fall tomorrow.  Thursday could be the winner of the week, but another round os still expected for Thursday night and Friday.  More on that tomorrow.  Stay safe.

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