Rainfall rates have been at over a 1/3 of an inch an hour for over two hours now. At times approaching four tenths of an inch per hour. That is solid. The AR has just hit us in earnest. Based on watching the radar this morning and afternoon, this system is shifting south very slowly. So we could be inside this stream for several more hours. I expect that we will be approaching the north side of the AR before dark, but just barely. OTOH, the last hour saw very little southerly shift, so we could be seeing a stall. If that were the case, we could see heavy rate for several more hours, and even into the early morning hours Friday. So far we are at 1.15" in Scotts Valley. We could easily double that during the rest of the storm. Roads are hazardous and getting worse. Buckle down for the day as much as you can. Avoid high speeds. Look for standing and running water. Maybe work from home tomorrow. If you can.
4:25 UPDATE. Looks like we are more than half way through this thing. Slightly. Expect several more hours of rain. Rain rates drop to nearly a 1/4 per hour (oh, so slow) for a bit but recently ramped back up to 1/3 inch per hour. Current total for today 1.63 inches of new rain since 11AM.
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