Over Produced.

Crazy storm.  We had lots of wind.  I lost portions of my deck corrugated fiberglass roof.  Lots of rain.  Yesterday came in how Thursday was expected.  Rain was slow to start in the morning.  We just had tremendous winds.  I was watching the eucalyptus grove across the way, expect things to drop.  Then just before noon the deluge began.  Rain fell at a steady pace, well past night fall, and we ended up exceeding that one to two inch forecast with a total of 3.09 inches by midnight.  In the early morning we received another .41 inches, for a total of 3.5 inches with the storm.  That exceeds the one to two forecasts by NOAA.


February has been a wet month.  18.7 inches so far, and we still have several big water events on the horizon.  This water year is currently the wettest to date, and if we continue along this trajectory, it will be record breaking by magnitudes.  Climate is certainly changing in the state, with our longest recorded drought period followed by at least an above average, if not record breaking year.  Seems like our state is going to have to figure out better water management and retention systems.

Looking at the models there is still hope for some sun breaking out late in the day today.  Showery weather should stick around, with several tenth of an inch possible.  Right now it looks like Sunday morning will be pleasant, with perhaps some winter sun.  Clouds deepen through the day, and we could have a rainy afternoon, although it looks on the lighter side.  The real rain arrives overnight, and by midnight or soon after, we will see very heavy rains.  This is another AR event, aimed just to our north.  We could easily see several more inches from late Sunday through early Tuesday.  Winds are again expected to be quite strong.  From Tuesday on, things are starting to look much better.  It is not like the rain will completely stop, but it will not be quite so strong.

In fact, Tuesday, we could be experiencing a little break between systems.  Maybe some light showers.  Maybe some sunshine.  Another wave moves in Tuesday night and lasts through much of the day Wednesday.  This one is still significant, but much less dramatic, less windy, and less wet than Monday.  Showers Thursday morning, and then some magical clearing.  Current model runs keep us dry through the following weekend, or ten days.  Imagine that