Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Humpday Transition Day.

We are headed into a week of rain systems starting tomorrow.  Yesterday's warm sun has shifted to today's mild cloud cover.  Light precursor rain moves in just around sunrise tomorrow.  If you are a lucky commuter, you'll be on the road before the rain shows.  Don't expect such a clear afternoon commute.  Heavy rain will be hot on its tails, and by noon time, we should be in the midst of a downpour.  Expect an inch or more during the day time hours tomorrow.  By dark, much of this system will be south of us, and we will just be in its showery tails.  Much cooler tomorrow with temps struggling to hit 60F.  The sky remains mostly cloudy overnight.

Best day off from school ever.  Sunshine, recent snow and no wind.  Kirkwood Resort, California.  

Friday morning will be warm, in the low 50s.  Rain fills in by mid day.  This storm comes in from the west well south of us, with a bullseye south of Point Conception.  Still, we should see a half inch or so of rain during the day Friday.  NWS is calling for rain by sunrise, but the GFS holds it off until sunset.  I'll spit the difference with a call for noon.  Watch out for this one, as when it does come in, it should come in quickly.  This system is a slow mover, with rain continuing overnight and through the morning on Saturday before seeing it back off much.  We could see over two inches accumulate before it finishes off.  Some time during the day Friday the rain turns to showers, then broken showers, and then clearing out near sunset.

Next system up stream arrives Monday morning, with several rounds rotating on shore through Wednesday.  A lot of rain falling, and a lot of snow piling up.  Good news for Oroville and our saturated state is that snow levels are expected to drop down to 5000 feet or lower by Tuesday, and prior to that hovering around lake level (6200') for much of the precipitative period.  This means less water flowing into our river ways, and less rain falling on snow, or saturated soils.

I'll keep an eye on how things play out, but expect rain tomorrow.  If we are lucky, not until sunset, but it could start before sunrise.  Different models find different solutions even just 12 hours out.  Plan for rain early, but I think we have until almost noon before it starts.  Hope I'm right.

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