Friday, March 3, 2017


Nearly three fourths of the state is completely out of drought, or listed as Normal.  Of that 25 plus percent that is not Normal, about half of it is listed as Abnormally Dry, with almost nine percent is in Moderate Drought and the remaining four percent is still listed in Severe Drought.  This is good news, but that is still 4% that is severe, and that happens to be along the coast near Santa Barbara.  We do have rain coming in for the weekend, but most of it will fall in the areas listed as Normal.

It looks like the rain will return tomorrow.  Before we move into that, I just want to take a moment to appreciate how warm it was today.  It got up to 69F here on the west side of town and topped off at 75F in Scotts Valley.  It was nice.  It will be cooler tomorrow.  Much cooler.  A cold front will hit and keep temps from getting out of the 50s tomorrow.  The day will start cloudy, and we should have rain falling before dark.  This swift mover will come in strong and could drop a half inch before daylight on Sunday.  Sunday morning will start in the mid 40s and warm to the mid 50s as rainfall lightens through the day.  Rain should back off before dark, and the winds will gust out of west during the day.  We could see some 30mph westerlies.  Strong, but nothing like those last two storms. Sunday night will be chilly.  We could see some showers.  We could see some stars.  Temps will drop in the 30s.  How many stars we see will likely determine how cold it gets.

Monday the models diverge.  I'm feeling the sunshine returning.  Some suggest drizzle.  Everyone clears things out by Tuesday night, which will be a cold one again.  High pressures works to keep storms jus to our north and east through the next work week.  So we could continue to see some clear and cool weather.  GFS has an inside slider hitting the Tahoe region next Friday, but we remain dry.  The winter is still active, and we could be see a train of more significant storms arriving late next weekend, starting around the night of Sunday, March 12th.  This is way out in fantasy land, but there are some big storms on the charts for that week.  Stay vigilant.  This weekend will be winter lite.

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