The models are calling for rain to start sometime after dark. This morning we already have a brisk southerly breeze, so it would not be outlandish if we saw some rain earlier in the day. Still, after looking at radar, I am thinking we will get through most of the day dry. By this evening, we should first see some moderate steady rain, slowly turning to more shower weather by Tuesday morning. This is not a big storm, and with some luck, we could get a quarter inch over night. The light rain will continue into the day Tuesday, but we are not looking at a heavy deluge, so we may see some breaks and dryer periods. I would still plan for wet weather through the day Tuesday, especially in the morning. Overall, we are looking at less than a half inch of rain here in town and about that amount in the mountains. We then follow with a short break on Tuesday night. Temps will be cool through the period, with lows in the low 50s and highs in the low 60s.
The models diverge a bit on the arrival of round 2. It will likely bring with it colder air, arriving either Wednesday or very early Thursday. As it is now, I am thinking it will be dry, but cloudy Wednesday morning, with light showery weather, especially to our north and south by mid day. That rain fills in more overnight, and we could see brief, heavier rain for early Thursday morning. This should clear out by late morning Thursday, and we could see the sun peak out before it sets. The highs will be just about 60F, and the lows drop back into the upper 40s. We could see another quarter inch with this system.
There is even more model divergences with the third storm coming in for the week on Friday. The GFS has pushed it back another twelve hours, with the storm arriving on Friday night, into Saturday morning. If this is correct, we could have a pleasant day on Friday, with some sunshine and associated warming. Not that much warming, as clouds will for sure be filled in by mid day. This system is looking slightly stronger than the combo earlier in the week, but recent model runs have cut back on that strength. The rain will be heaviest here Friday night (according to the GFS) and just to our south by Saturday morning. We are looking at about another half inch.
A fourth system could be coming our way for Sunday evening, into next Monday. This currently looks like the mildest of all the storms, but is still a week away. Overall, we are looking at about an inch and a half of precipitation over this coming week. Pretty minimal by this winter's standards. But, of course, it is spring, so, perhaps, this is the new norm for the spring. Light to moderate rain, with breaks in between. As it stands now, it looks like we could get sun next week.
Before I close it out, just wanted to mention that less than 10% of the state is still in drought, with just about 1% of that listed as Severe. We still have nearly another 15% Abnormally Dry, but we have come a long way this winter. Hopefully we can not look at our state's infrastructure and start preparing for the next big drought.