At this point, it looks like tonight's storm has backed off enough to saw there is a pretty good chance we won't see a tenth of an inch of rain. Actually, a pretty good chance we see none at all. What we will see for sure is a ton of wind. It is kind of like spring turned on around 5PM today, as a high, but light, fog band moved in. As that moves out int he morning, the north west winds are going to kick up pretty hard. In fact, they are blowing still on the outer buoy and near shore at Long Marine Lab. We could see gust in excess of 30mph tomorrow afternoon.
Tomorrow will be a good deal cooler than today. Highs on the west side ranged from 74F to 81F today. We will be lucky to get out of the 60s on Monday. A little fog cover early in the morning, and the brisk wind coming off the water all afternoon will keep it cool. It looks the next system mid week will also be heading through north of us. Well north in fact. Sun should be dominate mid week, with the next chance for rain toward the end of the week. That one will likely only hit the north eastern part of the state, which is good news, as they still need some water up there. Temps in the upper 60s, and maybe low 70s after tomorrow. Breezy weather continues, but it looks like Tuesday will be the worst of it. All in all, it will be a pretty darn nice week. The hills are a blooming.
After this coming weekend, the high pressure really strengthens. We could see a solid shift into spring like, and much dryer, weather.
Monday, April 8, 2019
Saturday, April 6, 2019
Wetness Continues.
Well, I escaped town for about a week, as it was my son's spring break. While we were hoping for sunshine on the slopes kind of spring weather, we instead had a little of everything. And afternoon arrival at Kirkwood saw a parking lot temperature of 54F. We skied some wonderful slush down low and perfect corn up top. The next day started with a warm 33F. It was soft to start, but wind, and clouds kept things perfect all day. Early afternoon saw some light drizzle down low and flurries above 8800'. From there, winter returned. A wet afternoon, turned into a snowy evening, and by morning, there were five inches of snow in the road. Full on spring pow day. Sun returned the next day and we enjoyed a bluebird powder day with a high of about 45F. The next morning was perfect for railing firm groomers. We left at noon, just as the pistes were softening up. Not a bad run for some spring break skiing. Cool weather and continued high elevation snow is keeping the skiing in great condition. Kirkwood closes this Sunday and reopens for Easter weekend. Squaw will turn lifts through at least Memorial Day. Heavenly plans to operate weekends through then as well, but with very limited terrain and access from the gondola only.
Here in Santa Cruz, about an inch and a half of rain fell since my last post. Most of that was yesterday, with .87" here on the westside. It has been a pretty wet start to April for town. We might see a light shower this morning, but things are clearing out. Mild today in the mid 60s. Warm Sunday and Monday with sunshine and in the low 70s. Might beach day again tomorrow. A storm moves through to our north Monday night, bringing a chance of light rain. This is another warm storm, so we won't see much of a dip in temperatures. Clouds will keep things a bit mild though. Highs through mid week in the mid to upper 60s. Some clouds. By later in the week, a cold trough will try to move down the coast. This system threatens cooler temps and rain by Friday. Maybe earlier. Will need to watch this system, as spring models are totally unreliable.
Those totally unreliable models are also toying with the idea that this will bust wide open the storm door allowing a cold and quite wet system to hit us just before Tax Day. Impressive for spring if that happens. High pressure to fill in behind that. Looks strong. and likely warm, cause you know, it is mid April by then. The North Pacific remains active, so we will still be watching storm systems and still be getting winter surf. Speaking of which, the swell is up today with a fresh north west arriving forecast for 8 feet at 18 seconds. Well overhead. Winds are south easterly, so you need to search for the right spot. By Monday the swell will be in. more moderate range and the wind more north westerly, making for decent town conditions. Winter ain't over folks.
Here in Santa Cruz, about an inch and a half of rain fell since my last post. Most of that was yesterday, with .87" here on the westside. It has been a pretty wet start to April for town. We might see a light shower this morning, but things are clearing out. Mild today in the mid 60s. Warm Sunday and Monday with sunshine and in the low 70s. Might beach day again tomorrow. A storm moves through to our north Monday night, bringing a chance of light rain. This is another warm storm, so we won't see much of a dip in temperatures. Clouds will keep things a bit mild though. Highs through mid week in the mid to upper 60s. Some clouds. By later in the week, a cold trough will try to move down the coast. This system threatens cooler temps and rain by Friday. Maybe earlier. Will need to watch this system, as spring models are totally unreliable.
Those totally unreliable models are also toying with the idea that this will bust wide open the storm door allowing a cold and quite wet system to hit us just before Tax Day. Impressive for spring if that happens. High pressure to fill in behind that. Looks strong. and likely warm, cause you know, it is mid April by then. The North Pacific remains active, so we will still be watching storm systems and still be getting winter surf. Speaking of which, the swell is up today with a fresh north west arriving forecast for 8 feet at 18 seconds. Well overhead. Winds are south easterly, so you need to search for the right spot. By Monday the swell will be in. more moderate range and the wind more north westerly, making for decent town conditions. Winter ain't over folks.
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Over Under.
The first wave of the storm over performed and the second under performed. It is hard today to get an accurate rain gauge reading, as many are currently down in town, and those that are up, have a huge range. DelaVeaga is coming in hot with .77" yesterday and .35" from Tuesday night. That is an inch of rain for this 2nd wave, which is right on target to even over performing. WeatherCat puts the total at almost 1/3 inch, which is way less, and a slight under performer. The WestherUderground gauges that are reporting put the Toal rainfall closer to .15" from yesterday. Like I said, quite a range. Ultimately, it felt like a lot less than a half inch of rain yesterday. Some very short periods of moderate rain, but mostly light and intermittent showers. And that third wave looks like it will amount to maybe a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, the Sierra got pounded pretty hard, with over a foot of fresh snow above 7000 feet, with plenty more than that on the peaks.
Today, Thursday, we will see clouds, remain cool and have a chance for some light showers in the morning. Sun could break out by afternoon. Then it is a warming trend folks. Mid 70s by Sunday. Not big change there. Some moderate NW winds develop in the afternoons, but we are looking at mostly light morning winds over the next few days. Friday morning may be the exception with the departure of the storm developing a stronger NW flow easier in the day. Otherwise it is looking quite fine out there through Sunday evening.
The next series of storms is right on the tail of this week. GFS keeps flipping the forecast between keeping the entire series of storms just to our north, to having a direct hit on the Bay Area. We will need to watch these, and keep in mind it is very hard to get a decent forecast this time of year more than 48 hours out. We won't really have a handle on Monday until Saturday. We could see any where from no rain next week, to up to two inches over three storms. Geez. These storms are not quite so cold, but we will see daytime highs drop almost 10 degrees from Sunday. Slightly cooler air, wind and clouds can do that. But it won't be cold. That is good news.
Long range still shows an active pattern up to two weeks out. Agin, these forecasts are not reliable when it comes to details, but this suggest that we could see possible rain and storm systems moving through well into April. Sooner or later the high pressure will come in for real, and drive us out of the rainy season. Still, even when that happens, we can still see storms break through on occasion. In 2011 we saw rain into June. That was a wonderful year for spring skiing and for hiking. In case you have not noticed, the state is looking pretty green. And yellow, red, orange, purple, gold and more as we are headed into a super bloom. If you have never been, consider a hike down in Pinnacles National Park. It is just an hour and half from here, and it is going off right now.
Today, Thursday, we will see clouds, remain cool and have a chance for some light showers in the morning. Sun could break out by afternoon. Then it is a warming trend folks. Mid 70s by Sunday. Not big change there. Some moderate NW winds develop in the afternoons, but we are looking at mostly light morning winds over the next few days. Friday morning may be the exception with the departure of the storm developing a stronger NW flow easier in the day. Otherwise it is looking quite fine out there through Sunday evening.
The next series of storms is right on the tail of this week. GFS keeps flipping the forecast between keeping the entire series of storms just to our north, to having a direct hit on the Bay Area. We will need to watch these, and keep in mind it is very hard to get a decent forecast this time of year more than 48 hours out. We won't really have a handle on Monday until Saturday. We could see any where from no rain next week, to up to two inches over three storms. Geez. These storms are not quite so cold, but we will see daytime highs drop almost 10 degrees from Sunday. Slightly cooler air, wind and clouds can do that. But it won't be cold. That is good news.
Long range still shows an active pattern up to two weeks out. Agin, these forecasts are not reliable when it comes to details, but this suggest that we could see possible rain and storm systems moving through well into April. Sooner or later the high pressure will come in for real, and drive us out of the rainy season. Still, even when that happens, we can still see storms break through on occasion. In 2011 we saw rain into June. That was a wonderful year for spring skiing and for hiking. In case you have not noticed, the state is looking pretty green. And yellow, red, orange, purple, gold and more as we are headed into a super bloom. If you have never been, consider a hike down in Pinnacles National Park. It is just an hour and half from here, and it is going off right now.
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Lamb Sandwich.
March is pretty much looking like it came in like a lion, went full on lamb, and will be wrapping up as a lion. Sort of. If we could just not include the coming weekend. After a spell of magnificent weather, we are into the rain again. Friday night we received about an inch of rain on the west side. Last night, we collected about a half inch of rain. And more is on the way. Today, Tuesday, will be cloudy and mild, with a high temperature in the low to mid 60s. We could see some showery weather; most likely early and late in the day, with mid day the best chance for a peek of sunshine. Light and variable winds in the morning, along with a moderate swell might make it a surf day.
Southwest winds pick up in the afternoon, and more rain moves in this evening. Round two for this mid week storm system. This next round is the bulk of the storm, and we should at least double our accumulation for the week. Expect about a half inch of rain to fall again overnight, with rain continuing into the day on Wednesday. Accumulation will be lighter during the day Wednesday, and we could see the steady rain shift to our north by afternoon. High of about 60F. Showers could continue into the evening Wednesday. We are looking at a total rain fall of about 3/4 to one inch.
It looks like the rain will be just to our north and east on Thursday. We could still see some showers. More likely is sunshine by afternoon. And a little more warmth to come with that sunshine. From there, the rest of the month looks pretty stellar. A little lamb on top. Open face style. With the clearing sky, we see overnight lows drop. Tonight will hang in the low 50s. Friday night will be in the low 40s. But let us first speak of Friday. Sunshine. Warmth. Spring.
This coming weekend is looking to be pretty damn stellar. Mid to upper 60s, with 70F not out of the question. Warmest on Sunday. It looks like it will be another beach day here in Santa Cruz. Low tide will be .24' at 2:45PM on Sunday, so you can expect a crowd out on the sand bar. We will be headed out to the snow, but will likely be at the beach Saturday. Speaking of snow, Tahoe has an epic snow pack right now. With another few feet on the way this week, things are only getting better as Vail prepares to shut down its resorts. Boo. Several of the locally and privately owned resorts like Diamond Peak and Homewood plan to stay open through the end of April. Alterra is keeping Squaw and Mammoth open through the 4th of July, with Alpine closing date yet to be announced. There are several months of awesome spring skiing left. It is a great time of year to get out on the slopes, whether you are a first timer or old hat. Make some spring and summer turns this year.
Finally, water. We are still hanging with 6.58% of the state listed as Abnormally Dry. Perhaps this week will get water to the extreme north west portion of the state, but not likely to get it to the south. Of note is the Drought Severity and Coverage Index is now sitting at 7. Last year at this time, the DSCI was 159. At the start of our water year it was 164, and was 186 just three months ago. We received a tremendous amount of rain fall in that time, but the great news is it came as a moderate steady stream. Compare that to two years ago, when we received almost all our our rain for the water year in a five week period. That led to a huge number of mud and land slides, roads and bridges being washed out and a lot of infrastructure depletion. It sure felt nice to not have that level of damage this year. Sure, we saw damage. A friend had an old growth douglas fir split their home in half. But overall, we escaped what could have been a damaging year.
Looking at the long term, a weak system tries to break down the high pressure on Sunday afternoon. It likely will be deflected north. Maybe some light rain Sunday night or Monday. A few weak systems early in the week, push the high pressure out, and we could see rain returning by mid week or the following weekend. On the fantasy charts, we have a wet week the 2nd week of April. Composite models continue to suggest a wetter than average April and May. These months are typically fairly dry, so not really expecting a big winter storm cycle. Just more rain. Keep posted
Southwest winds pick up in the afternoon, and more rain moves in this evening. Round two for this mid week storm system. This next round is the bulk of the storm, and we should at least double our accumulation for the week. Expect about a half inch of rain to fall again overnight, with rain continuing into the day on Wednesday. Accumulation will be lighter during the day Wednesday, and we could see the steady rain shift to our north by afternoon. High of about 60F. Showers could continue into the evening Wednesday. We are looking at a total rain fall of about 3/4 to one inch.
It looks like the rain will be just to our north and east on Thursday. We could still see some showers. More likely is sunshine by afternoon. And a little more warmth to come with that sunshine. From there, the rest of the month looks pretty stellar. A little lamb on top. Open face style. With the clearing sky, we see overnight lows drop. Tonight will hang in the low 50s. Friday night will be in the low 40s. But let us first speak of Friday. Sunshine. Warmth. Spring.
This coming weekend is looking to be pretty damn stellar. Mid to upper 60s, with 70F not out of the question. Warmest on Sunday. It looks like it will be another beach day here in Santa Cruz. Low tide will be .24' at 2:45PM on Sunday, so you can expect a crowd out on the sand bar. We will be headed out to the snow, but will likely be at the beach Saturday. Speaking of snow, Tahoe has an epic snow pack right now. With another few feet on the way this week, things are only getting better as Vail prepares to shut down its resorts. Boo. Several of the locally and privately owned resorts like Diamond Peak and Homewood plan to stay open through the end of April. Alterra is keeping Squaw and Mammoth open through the 4th of July, with Alpine closing date yet to be announced. There are several months of awesome spring skiing left. It is a great time of year to get out on the slopes, whether you are a first timer or old hat. Make some spring and summer turns this year.
Finally, water. We are still hanging with 6.58% of the state listed as Abnormally Dry. Perhaps this week will get water to the extreme north west portion of the state, but not likely to get it to the south. Of note is the Drought Severity and Coverage Index is now sitting at 7. Last year at this time, the DSCI was 159. At the start of our water year it was 164, and was 186 just three months ago. We received a tremendous amount of rain fall in that time, but the great news is it came as a moderate steady stream. Compare that to two years ago, when we received almost all our our rain for the water year in a five week period. That led to a huge number of mud and land slides, roads and bridges being washed out and a lot of infrastructure depletion. It sure felt nice to not have that level of damage this year. Sure, we saw damage. A friend had an old growth douglas fir split their home in half. But overall, we escaped what could have been a damaging year.
Looking at the long term, a weak system tries to break down the high pressure on Sunday afternoon. It likely will be deflected north. Maybe some light rain Sunday night or Monday. A few weak systems early in the week, push the high pressure out, and we could see rain returning by mid week or the following weekend. On the fantasy charts, we have a wet week the 2nd week of April. Composite models continue to suggest a wetter than average April and May. These months are typically fairly dry, so not really expecting a big winter storm cycle. Just more rain. Keep posted
Friday, March 22, 2019
Spring Showers.
We saw three fourths of an inch of rain with the system earlier this week. That was a bit more than the forecast. Almost all of it came overnight. That was nice. These storms are keeping the surf in decent shape, with the dreaded spring northwest flow not having a chance to develop. We have already seen rain from the next system move in. Just a light drizzle so far, with very little accumulation (like a hundredth of an inch). Rain should fill in today, and become more consistent by this evening. The forecast has increased the precip amounts, and we are not looking over a half inch of rain tonight. March is starting to look like another solid water producer, as the storms keep lining up. Today will be cool, staying in the upper 50s. Cloud cover keeps us in the low 40s overnight. The storm clears out by morning, and we have a nice Saturday on tap. With the addition of sunshine, we could see temps rise tot he low 60s. With the addition of stars Saturday night, we could see those temps drop into the upper 30s. Sunday morning will be a crisp one. Sunshine prevails, rounding out a nice, if cool weekend. Add to that a solid late season NW swell, with decent local conditions, and this is looking like a great first weekend of spring.
Rain returns to the region on Monday. The different models are still all over the lace for the timing go the next systems. The GFS has the next storm push a front across the region on Monday, bringing a decent bout of showers. Probably in the half inch range. Tuesday remain wet, but with very light showers ahead of the storm that pushes ashore on Wednesday. We could see an inch or more with the center of the storm, with showers lasting into Thursday. Timing is really hard to predict with these spring systems, as most of them are not connected to the jet stream. The take away is that the last week of March is going to be wet, with up to a few inches possible.
It currently looks like that last weekend of March we will have a break in the storms. The fantasy range models suggest more rain for the first week of April. The wet season is not over yet. You may be a little sad about that after experiencing the top notch weather we had a week ago. The good news is none of these storms look that strong or wet, and they all have a short break in between systems. In the mean time, get outside this weekend and hit the water or the trails. Make the most of that sunshine. And the waterfalls are still in form, and will get a solid boost from tonights rain.
Rain returns to the region on Monday. The different models are still all over the lace for the timing go the next systems. The GFS has the next storm push a front across the region on Monday, bringing a decent bout of showers. Probably in the half inch range. Tuesday remain wet, but with very light showers ahead of the storm that pushes ashore on Wednesday. We could see an inch or more with the center of the storm, with showers lasting into Thursday. Timing is really hard to predict with these spring systems, as most of them are not connected to the jet stream. The take away is that the last week of March is going to be wet, with up to a few inches possible.
It currently looks like that last weekend of March we will have a break in the storms. The fantasy range models suggest more rain for the first week of April. The wet season is not over yet. You may be a little sad about that after experiencing the top notch weather we had a week ago. The good news is none of these storms look that strong or wet, and they all have a short break in between systems. In the mean time, get outside this weekend and hit the water or the trails. Make the most of that sunshine. And the waterfalls are still in form, and will get a solid boost from tonights rain.
Sunday, March 17, 2019
Absolutely Stunning.
Pretty much the entire west side showed up to hang out on the Cowells sand bar this afternoon, and with good reason. The perfect bar and a solid swell alone would be enough to attract the hordes, but after a long wet winter, it is no surprise that folks would want to soak up the sunshine on a gorgeous 80 degree late winter day. Yeah, eighty. At least that was what was recorded t several westside locations on the uphill side of Mission. It was 74F on the Municipal Wharf the afternoon, and that area is exposed to any wind. Simply stunning. If you missed it, might be worth trying to get out tomorrow afternoon. Did I mention the stupendous sand bar.
Anyway, this wonderful spell of sunshine is coming to an end. Monday will be great. Sunny and warm. Mid 70s, maybe 80F again in the warmest spots. Overnight lows in the upper 40s. Clear into Tuesday morning. Then the first in a series of storms starts to move in. It should be noted that this series of storms is nothing like what we saw a few weeks ago. These will be much warmer and with much less rain fall. But a series none the less. Clouds fill in all morning Tuesday and we see chances of rain by noon. Anything that falls during the daylight hours will be fairly light, with better chances of more moderate rain Tuesday night. We could see a quarter inch overnight. Moderate rain continues through mid day Wednesday. A additional two tenths of an inch by night fall. Light showers are possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but the storm should exit by mid day Thursday.
Daytime highs drop each day. Tuesday will feel much cooler than today with the cloud cover and high in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will top out in the low 60s with Wednesday being the cooler of the tow days. We won't see a big break in the rain, as another storm is expected to arrive on Friday. This is another moderate rainmaker and a little cooler. It will drive down overnight lows into the low to mid 40s and keep day time highs in the low 60s. Maybe another half inch of rain, with some clearing on Sunday.
The GFS keeps them coming, with another rain maker after a brief one day break. This one is forecast to last through mid week, with another storm possible the following weekend. Of course we are looking out into the fantasy models. And if we are talking fantasy, the long term models are suggesting a few inches of rain through the end of the month, with a few more in April, and a wetter than average May. So, winter is not over yet folks. It does not look like the boom then bust of two winters ago, when we got a tremendous amount of rain from late December through late February and then things just dried out. Might me more like a leaking faucet this spring. And if you are a snow sport enthusiast who enjoy spring and summer turns, this is good news. Snow surfaces are being refreshed this week, and might keep getting those soothing light spring snows to keep things going into July.
Anyway, this wonderful spell of sunshine is coming to an end. Monday will be great. Sunny and warm. Mid 70s, maybe 80F again in the warmest spots. Overnight lows in the upper 40s. Clear into Tuesday morning. Then the first in a series of storms starts to move in. It should be noted that this series of storms is nothing like what we saw a few weeks ago. These will be much warmer and with much less rain fall. But a series none the less. Clouds fill in all morning Tuesday and we see chances of rain by noon. Anything that falls during the daylight hours will be fairly light, with better chances of more moderate rain Tuesday night. We could see a quarter inch overnight. Moderate rain continues through mid day Wednesday. A additional two tenths of an inch by night fall. Light showers are possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but the storm should exit by mid day Thursday.
Daytime highs drop each day. Tuesday will feel much cooler than today with the cloud cover and high in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will top out in the low 60s with Wednesday being the cooler of the tow days. We won't see a big break in the rain, as another storm is expected to arrive on Friday. This is another moderate rainmaker and a little cooler. It will drive down overnight lows into the low to mid 40s and keep day time highs in the low 60s. Maybe another half inch of rain, with some clearing on Sunday.
The GFS keeps them coming, with another rain maker after a brief one day break. This one is forecast to last through mid week, with another storm possible the following weekend. Of course we are looking out into the fantasy models. And if we are talking fantasy, the long term models are suggesting a few inches of rain through the end of the month, with a few more in April, and a wetter than average May. So, winter is not over yet folks. It does not look like the boom then bust of two winters ago, when we got a tremendous amount of rain from late December through late February and then things just dried out. Might me more like a leaking faucet this spring. And if you are a snow sport enthusiast who enjoy spring and summer turns, this is good news. Snow surfaces are being refreshed this week, and might keep getting those soothing light spring snows to keep things going into July.
Friday, March 15, 2019
6.58%
Only a tiny area in the far northern end of the state and a small area in the far southern end of the state are listed as Abnormally Dry. The rest of the state is normal, or above normal surface water content. Wow. This winter has been a huge turn around. Don't start going showering the yard in water, washing the car and otherwise pouring it down the drain. We are just basically returning to normal. It was a nice consistent six weeks of rain. Never a tremendous amount al at once. And while we saw issues with the roads and mud slides, it could have been much worse. We faired well with a return to a regular rainy winter. And it is not over yet. We are just enjoying a respite.
It does not looks like we will see another long period of regular moderate rainfall like we enjoyed earlier this winter. Still, we must remain prepared for another period of otherwise active weather. First, though, we get to enjoy the best weekend yet of 2019. Sun and warmth are the name of the game. Today was pretty damn beautiful. Decent surf, light winds and temps across the west side in the upper 60s and low 70s. The Wharf recorded 66F this afternoon. Pretty sweet. Low tide in the afternoon and the sand bar at Cowells is fat. Get out and enjoy a sweet beach day. We should be out Sunday afternoon. Weather stays nice through Monday, and in fact, Monday might be the nicest one.
A storm is going to try to undercut the high pressure Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. It will weaken or possibly split as it approaches. As it is now, we have a chance for light to moderate rain for the middle of next week. This system will beat down the door, so to speak, weakening the high pressure ahead of the next storm. The second system is forecast to arrive Friday or Saturday. This one is likely going to be a little stronger, but not a super heavy hitter. We will need to watch these systems next week and see how they approach our region. For now, I hope you plans to get outside this weekend. It is going to be pretty awesome.
It does not looks like we will see another long period of regular moderate rainfall like we enjoyed earlier this winter. Still, we must remain prepared for another period of otherwise active weather. First, though, we get to enjoy the best weekend yet of 2019. Sun and warmth are the name of the game. Today was pretty damn beautiful. Decent surf, light winds and temps across the west side in the upper 60s and low 70s. The Wharf recorded 66F this afternoon. Pretty sweet. Low tide in the afternoon and the sand bar at Cowells is fat. Get out and enjoy a sweet beach day. We should be out Sunday afternoon. Weather stays nice through Monday, and in fact, Monday might be the nicest one.
A storm is going to try to undercut the high pressure Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. It will weaken or possibly split as it approaches. As it is now, we have a chance for light to moderate rain for the middle of next week. This system will beat down the door, so to speak, weakening the high pressure ahead of the next storm. The second system is forecast to arrive Friday or Saturday. This one is likely going to be a little stronger, but not a super heavy hitter. We will need to watch these systems next week and see how they approach our region. For now, I hope you plans to get outside this weekend. It is going to be pretty awesome.
Monday, March 11, 2019
And It Gets Even Better.
Well it now looks like that storm coming into California on Tuesday is going to stay well north and east of the Bay Area. That mean north west winds will continue into mid week, and the sun will be out. It was crisp this morning. It was 38F this morning at 7AM. The Van Ness and King thermometer recorded a high of 74.7F at 5PM. I am sure that was in the sun, but it was warm out there today.
Still expecting a cold front hitting us tomorrow, perhaps keeping us in the upper 50s. We rebound into the low 60s for the rest the rest of the work week, and will see a significant warming trend over the weekend. Still expecting low 70s for Sunday and the start of next week. Not just at a sunny spot on the west side, but across town. And maybe even up to the water's edge. It was gorgeous today, and it will be gorgeous all week.
There are signs in the long range forecast that storms will try to break down this high pressure in about a week's time. It does not look like winter is quite over, but we do have a nice respite to enjoy. Too far out right now to say with certainty when rain will return, but I'll be keeping an eye on the model runs and report when they are within 5 days.
Nearly 90% of the state is completely out of drought, with about 10% Abnormally Dry, and only .6% still listed as Moderate Drought. We have made strides. This is from last Tuesday, so does not include rain from the middle of last week. The bigger change was in the northern portion of the state with this report, but one of the storms last week hit the south pretty good. It is possible that by this week's report, we could see further advances.
Still expecting a cold front hitting us tomorrow, perhaps keeping us in the upper 50s. We rebound into the low 60s for the rest the rest of the work week, and will see a significant warming trend over the weekend. Still expecting low 70s for Sunday and the start of next week. Not just at a sunny spot on the west side, but across town. And maybe even up to the water's edge. It was gorgeous today, and it will be gorgeous all week.
There are signs in the long range forecast that storms will try to break down this high pressure in about a week's time. It does not look like winter is quite over, but we do have a nice respite to enjoy. Too far out right now to say with certainty when rain will return, but I'll be keeping an eye on the model runs and report when they are within 5 days.
Nearly 90% of the state is completely out of drought, with about 10% Abnormally Dry, and only .6% still listed as Moderate Drought. We have made strides. This is from last Tuesday, so does not include rain from the middle of last week. The bigger change was in the northern portion of the state with this report, but one of the storms last week hit the south pretty good. It is possible that by this week's report, we could see further advances.
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Seventy by Sunday.
Looks like we are in store for a warm up. Amazing. Before we get to that, let's talk about the rain. We received over an inch of rain on Saturday, and a little bit more this morning. West side locations recorded up to 1.25 inches since Friday. That is quite a bit more than the half inch I was calling for. The coastal system rolled just enough onshore to give us a heavy hit yesterday. To give you an idea of just how close to the edge we were, Tahoe resorts received from zero to four inches of snow, and it was only about 20F during the snowfall. That is about up to two tenths of an inch of water. Anyway, that system is south of us now. Winds are still out of the south oddly enough. Don't have the time to dig into that.
It looks like we are going to see a big change in the weather pattern. Sun is out this afternoon and Monday looks like it will be quite clear. It will be cold to start. About 40F on the coast. It will be warm in the afternoon though. With the sun on us, it will feel even warmer than 60F. We will see a storm drop out of the north on Tuesday, staying mostly north of us. It will bring a cld front, some wind, and a threat of showers. Ultimately it will be cooler, and will have more cloud cover. Tuesday will be the roughest day of the week.
The storm moves out by Wednesday, and sun returns. We will get some for real high pressure and a warming trend. We should be back into the low 60s by Thursday or Friday and could be hitting 70F by Sunday or Monday. Woot woot folks. It is going to be pretty awesome next weekend. Break out your beach gear.
It looks like we are going to see a big change in the weather pattern. Sun is out this afternoon and Monday looks like it will be quite clear. It will be cold to start. About 40F on the coast. It will be warm in the afternoon though. With the sun on us, it will feel even warmer than 60F. We will see a storm drop out of the north on Tuesday, staying mostly north of us. It will bring a cld front, some wind, and a threat of showers. Ultimately it will be cooler, and will have more cloud cover. Tuesday will be the roughest day of the week.
The storm moves out by Wednesday, and sun returns. We will get some for real high pressure and a warming trend. We should be back into the low 60s by Thursday or Friday and could be hitting 70F by Sunday or Monday. Woot woot folks. It is going to be pretty awesome next weekend. Break out your beach gear.
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Quickie
Only have a few minutes tonight to talk about the weekend system. First, though, more rain than expected today. Nearly another quarter inch since midnight. Impressive. The active and moist air continues, even into tomorrow. Sorry sunshine, but you will have to wait or fight to show yourself on Friday. Oh well. We could still see some breaks in the clouds, with the best chance around sunset. We should still get a partly clear sky overnight, driving those lows down to the low 40s.
It does look we will see some rain on Saturday and Sunday. Not a whole lot, but kind of a continuation of today. Perhaps even a little wetter. The morning on Saturday should break dry, but showers move in late morning or mid day. This storm is cut off from the jet stream, so it is really hard to forecast its trajectory. It mostly depends on how it gets pushed from behind. It will move south, west of us, off the coast, but its eastern edge should brush us decently. Loos like the heaviest rain will fall Saturday night.
It still looks like sunshine for Monday. Where have I heard that before? And that Tuesday storm continue to trend toward diving out of the north and bringing more rain for us. It does look brief though and we are still seeing a high pressure forecast to start building on Wednesday. We could see a week to ten days of sunshine and warmth. Long range is suggesting storms trying to break through middle of the following week, but not quite busting down the door. It has been a very wet six weeks. Not a whole lot of super heavy rain, but a nice sustained rainfall.
It does look we will see some rain on Saturday and Sunday. Not a whole lot, but kind of a continuation of today. Perhaps even a little wetter. The morning on Saturday should break dry, but showers move in late morning or mid day. This storm is cut off from the jet stream, so it is really hard to forecast its trajectory. It mostly depends on how it gets pushed from behind. It will move south, west of us, off the coast, but its eastern edge should brush us decently. Loos like the heaviest rain will fall Saturday night.
It still looks like sunshine for Monday. Where have I heard that before? And that Tuesday storm continue to trend toward diving out of the north and bringing more rain for us. It does look brief though and we are still seeing a high pressure forecast to start building on Wednesday. We could see a week to ten days of sunshine and warmth. Long range is suggesting storms trying to break through middle of the following week, but not quite busting down the door. It has been a very wet six weeks. Not a whole lot of super heavy rain, but a nice sustained rainfall.
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Head Shaking.
So, we ended up with about an inch and quarter at King and Van Ness. Other gauges on the west side were a bit less (.91" on Western), but we got a fair amount of rain over theist two days. The storm has moved onshore, and the cold front passed. Moderate snow and low elevation rain is falling in the Sierra. Up until this afternoon, it was pretty warm storm, but it is now snowing at Lake Level. And we are looking to dry out over the next two days. We could see a shower tonight. Or two. Lows in the mid 40s. Clouds. Still cloudy in the morning, and a very slight chance of a very light shower. It will remain cool, in the low to mid 50s. But that nice high pressure I've been promising you... its going to take a few more days to arrive.
Latest guidance for the storm this weekend is for it to stay off shore. But not all the way. And that won't happen until Saturday. Thursday night will be cold, as the clouds clear out and temps drop to the low 40s. Some valleys might drop into the upper 30s. And this is March folks. Anyway, Friday looks awesome. Some sunshine. Some solar radiation masking as warmth. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Did I mention that little bit of sunshine. So excited.
I'll look at things tomorrow and get into a little more detail, but that storm that was supposed to stay of the coast is not cooperating. Right now Saturday looks like Friday, but rain could push ashore as early as the afternoon. The rain will be light and mostly a drizzle, but rain none the less. The center of the storm moves south, off the coast, before falling apart and sweeping inland into the southwest. We see a break on Monday. Remember that storm that was to stay to our north next week. The GFS is now bullish on it diving south far enough to bring us some rain next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. But it is late winter folks, and models can be quirky this time of year. Let's wait until later in this weekend to really forecast next week. Regardless, it looks to remain cool through the period, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Winter has been a real bugger this year. But at least we have our water back on the ground and fat fat snow pack up in the mountains.
Latest guidance for the storm this weekend is for it to stay off shore. But not all the way. And that won't happen until Saturday. Thursday night will be cold, as the clouds clear out and temps drop to the low 40s. Some valleys might drop into the upper 30s. And this is March folks. Anyway, Friday looks awesome. Some sunshine. Some solar radiation masking as warmth. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Did I mention that little bit of sunshine. So excited.
I'll look at things tomorrow and get into a little more detail, but that storm that was supposed to stay of the coast is not cooperating. Right now Saturday looks like Friday, but rain could push ashore as early as the afternoon. The rain will be light and mostly a drizzle, but rain none the less. The center of the storm moves south, off the coast, before falling apart and sweeping inland into the southwest. We see a break on Monday. Remember that storm that was to stay to our north next week. The GFS is now bullish on it diving south far enough to bring us some rain next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. But it is late winter folks, and models can be quirky this time of year. Let's wait until later in this weekend to really forecast next week. Regardless, it looks to remain cool through the period, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Winter has been a real bugger this year. But at least we have our water back on the ground and fat fat snow pack up in the mountains.
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
It's Back.
Rain has returned to the region after a long hiatus of almost 40 hours. Hope you were able to keep your flower beds from drying out. Just about 50F out there this morning. We won't see that thermometer move too much today. High expected to be around 56F. The rain will come and go over the next few days. This storm is pushing onshore to our north, and dragging a weak AR into the state to our south. We are in the middle of all that and surprisingly will see much less precipitation that other regions nearby. As the storm moves ashore Wednesday, a cold front will swing south and the storm will align with the Sierra, dropping a foot or more of snow. Rain at lake level today.
There is a pretty wide range of forecast for our area. Some have as little as a tenth of an inch of rain for each 12 hour period through Thursday morning. Others have up to a half inch. That is a big range. The coastal mountains will for sure squeeze a good amount out of this system, but here in town, we might see closer tot he low end. My forecast for today is showers, moderate at times, with breaks in between. About 2/10", with most of that falling after lunch. The system will ramp up a bit this evening, but precipitation rates in town will remain on the low side. Another 3/10" overnight for a total of 1/2" by Wednesday morning. When the storm moves ashore mid day tomorrow, we will have a brief, but moderate plus rainfall just after the cold front passes through. Temps remain in the 50s through this period.
With the cold front, Wednesday night will be a bit cooler, down in the upper 40s. Rain showers should be lighter by dark, but could persist into Friday morning. We see the chances for showers decrease through the period, and any accumulation will be light to minimal. Thursday will be cloudy with a high in the low to mid 50s. Thursday night will have some clearing, with a low of about 40F. Chilly, eh? Friday, more clearing and high again in the mid 50s. Even cooler Friday night.
By Saturday we should see a decent amount of sunshine, and high pressure is actually planning on moving in and setting up camp. It will be a challenge though, as another storm will be just off our coast. The weekend could be nice, but we could be brushed by rain as that system drops south just to our west. We all want our sunshine, and we all have received enough water for now. The plants need to grow. The kids need to get outside. As do the adults. Regardless of this weekend, that high pressure will struggle to stick around for the following week to ten days. It would really feel like spring is that happens. Look for a warming trend, and with luck, we will be in the low 60s by Tuesday and even warming by next Friday.
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| December had some great surf. A little tougher to find a good day since. Scotts Creek, December, 2017. |
There is a pretty wide range of forecast for our area. Some have as little as a tenth of an inch of rain for each 12 hour period through Thursday morning. Others have up to a half inch. That is a big range. The coastal mountains will for sure squeeze a good amount out of this system, but here in town, we might see closer tot he low end. My forecast for today is showers, moderate at times, with breaks in between. About 2/10", with most of that falling after lunch. The system will ramp up a bit this evening, but precipitation rates in town will remain on the low side. Another 3/10" overnight for a total of 1/2" by Wednesday morning. When the storm moves ashore mid day tomorrow, we will have a brief, but moderate plus rainfall just after the cold front passes through. Temps remain in the 50s through this period.
With the cold front, Wednesday night will be a bit cooler, down in the upper 40s. Rain showers should be lighter by dark, but could persist into Friday morning. We see the chances for showers decrease through the period, and any accumulation will be light to minimal. Thursday will be cloudy with a high in the low to mid 50s. Thursday night will have some clearing, with a low of about 40F. Chilly, eh? Friday, more clearing and high again in the mid 50s. Even cooler Friday night.
By Saturday we should see a decent amount of sunshine, and high pressure is actually planning on moving in and setting up camp. It will be a challenge though, as another storm will be just off our coast. The weekend could be nice, but we could be brushed by rain as that system drops south just to our west. We all want our sunshine, and we all have received enough water for now. The plants need to grow. The kids need to get outside. As do the adults. Regardless of this weekend, that high pressure will struggle to stick around for the following week to ten days. It would really feel like spring is that happens. Look for a warming trend, and with luck, we will be in the low 60s by Tuesday and even warming by next Friday.
Sunday, March 3, 2019
1.87, or Almost 2.
We saw the rain cut off abruptly yesterday by 11AM. A short period of rain around 5:30 added a few hundredths of an inch, but not much else. Then, from around 5:30 through 7AM this morning, we received almost 2/10th of an inch. All told, we are sitting at just under two inches of rain here in town since Friday night. Not a bad run, and a quite a bit more rain than we saw through the middle of last week. Before we get into the work week forecast, just wanted to shout out that 86% of the state of California is now completely out of drought conditions, with just about 2% listed as Moderate Drought and the rest Abnormally Dry. Drought is still listed in the far north eastern portion of the state, along with dry conditions. San Diego, along the southern rim of the Salton Sea to the Arizona border is also listed as dry. We have received more rain since this report, with more on the way. We continue to move in the right direction. Perhaps even more important than this surface water designations the fact that the Sierra is holding a ton of snow, a good portion of it well be 6000 feet. This will mean melt water well into the summer. If we can luck into a cool a spring, we will be in amazing shape come October.
We could see some showers during the day Sunday, but they will be light, and not very likely. Maybe another tenth of an inch could fall by this evening. We are expecting some clearing tonight, but it won't be a star gazer night. Moderate cloud cover keeps from dropping to far into the 40s; expect a low of about 48F. Monday continues will some cloud cover, and is a break in the rain action. Mid to upper 50s expected. If we get a bit more sun than forecast, we could see some 60F readings. Winds are pretty light through this period. Then the next system to our west begins to push slowly onshore late Monday night. We could see some light rain before morning, but the storm is not expected to arrive until during the day Tuesday.
Like I said, this one is moving slowly. It is cut off from the jet, and will need the storm behind it to push it east. Monday night we will dip into the 40s again, and right back up to the upper 50s for Tuesday. Showery weather increases during the afternoon on Tuesday. What is interesting is this storm will be tapping into a sub tropical moisture stream, just like the one we had over the weekend. This will bring moderate to heavy rains to areas to our south, while the storm center north of us brings moderate rains there. We are basically going to be surrounded by heavier rains, but here in town, we are only expecting less than a quarter inch during the day Tuesday, and about a quarter inch Tuesday night. Regardless, it looks like the heaviest rain will come at night. And it will stay warm, in the 50F overnight.
Wednesday, the bulk of the storm will be east of us, with some heavy snow in the high Sierra, and moderate rain at Lake Tahoe. Looks like that Fabulous February is over. We should still plan on showers Wednesday, especially in the morning. In fact, the showery conditions might not end until late Thursday. At the very least, we will have high humidity through then. Day time temps continue in the 50s, with night time lows dropping back into the 40s. Thursday night we will drop to the low 40s, as the clouds clear out a bit.
The good news is it looks like the showery weather really should clear out of here Friday and even more so for the weekend. High pressure is planning to set up. Yes, you read that right. A weak high pressure. We might even warm back up into the 60s this coming weekend. And even better news than that, is it might stick around into early next week. Another storm is coming for California, but the guidance currently suggest it will be hitting SoCal and northern Mexico, keeping us dry. This is good news for alleviating that Abnormally Dry condition in the very south, and well as letting us dry out a bit.
If you have not started, this is great time to get out and work in the garden. I keep a winter garden, and just finished a spring planting of peas and carrots. Even if you only maintain a summer garden, get out there and pull those weeds that are likely growing in your beds, and turn the soil. It is not too early to start planting seeds. Even for summer veggies like zucchini or cucumber even. It can take a while to get these plants established to give a bountiful crop. It is early March, and it will take 10 or more days to get seedlings, and the good news is the soil will not be drying out for months at this rate. That means you don't need to get out there and water every day or run the risk of having young plants, with limited root systems die on you. By the time we see the need for more regular watering, those plants will be mature and able to handle short drier periods. With some sunshine looking to come our way, soils will warm up, and plants will be growing. Spring is just around the corner.
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| Emigrant Basin. Main Street. |
We could see some showers during the day Sunday, but they will be light, and not very likely. Maybe another tenth of an inch could fall by this evening. We are expecting some clearing tonight, but it won't be a star gazer night. Moderate cloud cover keeps from dropping to far into the 40s; expect a low of about 48F. Monday continues will some cloud cover, and is a break in the rain action. Mid to upper 50s expected. If we get a bit more sun than forecast, we could see some 60F readings. Winds are pretty light through this period. Then the next system to our west begins to push slowly onshore late Monday night. We could see some light rain before morning, but the storm is not expected to arrive until during the day Tuesday.
Like I said, this one is moving slowly. It is cut off from the jet, and will need the storm behind it to push it east. Monday night we will dip into the 40s again, and right back up to the upper 50s for Tuesday. Showery weather increases during the afternoon on Tuesday. What is interesting is this storm will be tapping into a sub tropical moisture stream, just like the one we had over the weekend. This will bring moderate to heavy rains to areas to our south, while the storm center north of us brings moderate rains there. We are basically going to be surrounded by heavier rains, but here in town, we are only expecting less than a quarter inch during the day Tuesday, and about a quarter inch Tuesday night. Regardless, it looks like the heaviest rain will come at night. And it will stay warm, in the 50F overnight.
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| We are in the green eye of the storm on Tuesday. |
Wednesday, the bulk of the storm will be east of us, with some heavy snow in the high Sierra, and moderate rain at Lake Tahoe. Looks like that Fabulous February is over. We should still plan on showers Wednesday, especially in the morning. In fact, the showery conditions might not end until late Thursday. At the very least, we will have high humidity through then. Day time temps continue in the 50s, with night time lows dropping back into the 40s. Thursday night we will drop to the low 40s, as the clouds clear out a bit.
The good news is it looks like the showery weather really should clear out of here Friday and even more so for the weekend. High pressure is planning to set up. Yes, you read that right. A weak high pressure. We might even warm back up into the 60s this coming weekend. And even better news than that, is it might stick around into early next week. Another storm is coming for California, but the guidance currently suggest it will be hitting SoCal and northern Mexico, keeping us dry. This is good news for alleviating that Abnormally Dry condition in the very south, and well as letting us dry out a bit.
If you have not started, this is great time to get out and work in the garden. I keep a winter garden, and just finished a spring planting of peas and carrots. Even if you only maintain a summer garden, get out there and pull those weeds that are likely growing in your beds, and turn the soil. It is not too early to start planting seeds. Even for summer veggies like zucchini or cucumber even. It can take a while to get these plants established to give a bountiful crop. It is early March, and it will take 10 or more days to get seedlings, and the good news is the soil will not be drying out for months at this rate. That means you don't need to get out there and water every day or run the risk of having young plants, with limited root systems die on you. By the time we see the need for more regular watering, those plants will be mature and able to handle short drier periods. With some sunshine looking to come our way, soils will warm up, and plants will be growing. Spring is just around the corner.
Saturday, March 2, 2019
Over Producer.
Last night was wet. One and half inches so far; far exceeding forecasts. Yesterday I saw the GFS bump up the 9PM to 9AM rainfall amounts to almost this range, and thought we might get hit. Decided not to post, as I was tired last night. Well, we ended up with the top end of that range. The same GFS run suggest that rain backs off abruptly at 9AM, with only a tenth of an inch expected in the next 12 hour period. Storm is supposed to shift east. It is also really warm out there this morning, with the temp currently 57.4F on Western Ave. That is about the high temp forecasted for today. So wet morning, and less wet by noon. Showery weather should stick around into the night, so not dry and sunny. NOAA still forecasting up to an additional 3/4 of an inch of rain by Sunday afternoon. We might get that much, but I'm expecting the majority of it hitting before noon today.
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| Cold Smoke at Kirkwood. February, 2018. |
Gonna be a short post, as I need to get on with the day. A break in the weather on Monday, followed by more rain middle of next week. At least we got one day of clean, moderate plus, long period swell on Friday. That was a nice break. Been hard getting in the water this past month, but the snow has been stellar. Now with the warmer air, we are back to the more typical Sierra Cement set up. But the mountains are stacked for spring, and we might be lucky enough to end this cycle with some cold storms, as the regions troughs and highs move around.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Crazy Pattern.
Well, we have more rain on the way. I'll be not going out on a limb and suggesting we saw records for the month of February across much of the region. Perhaps we can take a look at that tomorrow. For now, get out there on Friday and enjoy the sun in the morning. Should be a nice day. Starts off cool, in the low 40s. Might even break 60F across most of town. Upper 50s to low 60s were recorded as highs on the west side today. Those higher readings are spot that were getting sunshine in the middle of the day. Just over a third inch of rain was recorded with this storm. That is a lot less than the one plus inch I forecasted here, and way way less than what NOAA was calling for (up to three) or NPR (3-5" in town and 6-10" in the Santa Cruz Mountains). Needless to say, this system way under performed. And that worked out just fine with us. More time for the earth to absorb, drain and heal. Plenty of areas in the state are flooding right now. The road into Pescardero would be an example.
Light winds, moderate swell and sunshine in Friday make for some decent surf early. Late in the day the winds shift south, and by evening we could see the first drops of rain. It looks like a decent night of rain, with a half inch likely overnight, with temps in the mid 40s.. Rain backs off quickly on Saturday morning, and it should be just sporadic showers by afternoon. We see a slight chance of showers into Sunday, but I doubt we get more than a sprinkle after Saturday morning. This system is fairly warm, and overnight lows move into the low 50s by Saturday night. Afternoon highs in the upper 50s over the weekend.
Monday looks like another nice day, with some sunshine, and warming temps. More storms are set to run through middle of next week. As of now it looks like a decent storm Tuesday night, with showers into Thursday. What is really interesting is we have a storm on the charts every few days over the next 16 days. Yes, much of that is fantasy charts, but interesting none the less. This aligns with a trough forecast along the west coast through the period, so yes, we could be in for a long run of moderately wet weather.
Vail just announced they will keep their Tahoe resorts open one extra week due to the deep snow pack. Cool. Squaw and Mammoth will be open until 4th of July, so there is really no contest there. This will be a great year to enjoy some late spring skiing, as the snow pack in excellent shape, and over ten feet deep. That means there will be a lot of it around until the summer. In my opinion, it is some of the best snow sliding of the year. Just remember that sunblock.
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| Chocking on powder. Kirkwood. February 2019. |
Light winds, moderate swell and sunshine in Friday make for some decent surf early. Late in the day the winds shift south, and by evening we could see the first drops of rain. It looks like a decent night of rain, with a half inch likely overnight, with temps in the mid 40s.. Rain backs off quickly on Saturday morning, and it should be just sporadic showers by afternoon. We see a slight chance of showers into Sunday, but I doubt we get more than a sprinkle after Saturday morning. This system is fairly warm, and overnight lows move into the low 50s by Saturday night. Afternoon highs in the upper 50s over the weekend.
Monday looks like another nice day, with some sunshine, and warming temps. More storms are set to run through middle of next week. As of now it looks like a decent storm Tuesday night, with showers into Thursday. What is really interesting is we have a storm on the charts every few days over the next 16 days. Yes, much of that is fantasy charts, but interesting none the less. This aligns with a trough forecast along the west coast through the period, so yes, we could be in for a long run of moderately wet weather.
Vail just announced they will keep their Tahoe resorts open one extra week due to the deep snow pack. Cool. Squaw and Mammoth will be open until 4th of July, so there is really no contest there. This will be a great year to enjoy some late spring skiing, as the snow pack in excellent shape, and over ten feet deep. That means there will be a lot of it around until the summer. In my opinion, it is some of the best snow sliding of the year. Just remember that sunblock.
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
We Didn't Need It.
Right? Rain never really showed. About a third of an inch last night, and I can see breaks in the clouds already this morning. Main moisture stream is now well south of us, after spending much of yesterday and last night well north of us. We just got a passing hit. That is fine. We are good on water right now, and perhaps this respite will help keep our mountains from liquidating. I was out walking around Butano SP on Sunday and there are a ton of downed trees in the canyons. But we are not out of the woods yet. We still have several more weeks of winter and few more of the rainy season. Chance of showers continues through tonight, with up to a half inch forecasted by NOAA. Looking at radar, satellite and out my window, I'm thinking we end up with quite a bit less than that. Still, carry an umbrella and/or raincoat around with you today. High of 58F today.
Tonight stays warm, in the 50F, with light showers. Thursday begins cloudy, with some afternoon sunshine and a high in the upper 50s. A clear sky allows radiational cooling, and we see temps drop to about 40F by Friday morning, ahead of another rain system. The rain for the coming weekend is now looking a little warmer and little lighter. Saturday looks like the rain day, with clearer weather for Sunday into Monday. We are looking at the chance for more rain as early as Tuesday.
Overnight lows warm a bit through the period into the mid 40s. Daytime highs remain in the upper 50s. We remain in a wet trend through the following weekend. There is some suggestion that we could see some high pressure set up after that, but that has been the name of the game since New Years. We will need to watch it as we get closer. We are now looking at three weeks of kicking the sunshine can down the road.
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| When you learn your friends left the back door open for you. |
Tonight stays warm, in the 50F, with light showers. Thursday begins cloudy, with some afternoon sunshine and a high in the upper 50s. A clear sky allows radiational cooling, and we see temps drop to about 40F by Friday morning, ahead of another rain system. The rain for the coming weekend is now looking a little warmer and little lighter. Saturday looks like the rain day, with clearer weather for Sunday into Monday. We are looking at the chance for more rain as early as Tuesday.
Overnight lows warm a bit through the period into the mid 40s. Daytime highs remain in the upper 50s. We remain in a wet trend through the following weekend. There is some suggestion that we could see some high pressure set up after that, but that has been the name of the game since New Years. We will need to watch it as we get closer. We are now looking at three weeks of kicking the sunshine can down the road.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Afternoon Deluge.
Pretty much on track so far. No measurable rain just yet. We did have a few moments of mistiness yesterday morning, and dark clouds, that made me think things moved in early. Then, nothing. Well, except some light rain last night in the Santa Cruz Mountains. If you look on the radar you can see there is a ton of rain just to our north. It will be just a few hours now before rain begins to fall locally. Light at first, then heavy. We should see about an inch and a half of rain fall from this mid afternoon through 3AM, then some lighter rain into the morning hours. But not too light. We could see up to another half inch by noon Wednesday, but I'm betting on juts a quarter. After that, the rain subsides a bit, before another wave, weaker than the first, pushes through in the evening. Temperatures remain fairly steady through the period. Currently it is 53F, and we will likely stay in the 50s today, tonight and maybe Wednesday (we could hit 60F, whoop whoop).
Tahoe is already getting hit. That cold smoke of the last three weeks is now under several inches to a foot of cement. They are expecting 3-6 feet more snow this week. Snow will back off on Thursday, and they will be digging out again, trying to prep for the weekend, and more snow. Insane winter up there. The resorts are all sitting at 400-500 inches of snow so far this season, with really no end in sight. It is going to be such a great spring. Too bad Vail thinks ski season should stop in early April, as Squaw will be running lifts into June this year and are aiming for July 4th. So is Mammoth. Instead of chasing the snow through these storms, consider spending your money in April and May, when we are more likely to have fine weather and great tail gating in helot at the end of the day.
That second wave coming through Wednesday evening is nothing like the first. More like sustained showers than a deluge. We are looking at an additional few tenths of an inch by Thursday morning. Then some clearing in the day time, with sunshine in the afternoon. Look for a killer sunset. Winds shifts from the strong south westerlies we see all week, to a moderate north wind. Might even get a chance for the surf to clean up a bit. Friday looks fair, with clouds filling back in through the day. Daytime temps remain in the upper 50s, but with some cooler air and a clearer sky, night time lows drop back down to the low 40s. Next system up stream arrives late Friday night.
This storm can be seen on the satellite spinning offshore. It has a good amount of moisture with it, but its main plug is expected to be just to our north. Again. Not far enough north to hit the drought areas hard, but far just a hair north to spare us. As it sits now. Looks like the rain will begin in the early morning hours Saturday and rain pretty heavy through the afternoon, before shifting east. This one looks swift, so we may not see big accumulations from it. About a half inch by Sunday mid day.
We could see another storm as early as next Tuesday night and lasting through the middle of next week. And another next weekend, and another the following week. Word on the street is we are now officially in weak El Nino, so there is that.
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| Snow in the Santa Lucia. This will all wash away tonight, with freezing levels between 5000 and 6000 feet. |
Tahoe is already getting hit. That cold smoke of the last three weeks is now under several inches to a foot of cement. They are expecting 3-6 feet more snow this week. Snow will back off on Thursday, and they will be digging out again, trying to prep for the weekend, and more snow. Insane winter up there. The resorts are all sitting at 400-500 inches of snow so far this season, with really no end in sight. It is going to be such a great spring. Too bad Vail thinks ski season should stop in early April, as Squaw will be running lifts into June this year and are aiming for July 4th. So is Mammoth. Instead of chasing the snow through these storms, consider spending your money in April and May, when we are more likely to have fine weather and great tail gating in helot at the end of the day.
That second wave coming through Wednesday evening is nothing like the first. More like sustained showers than a deluge. We are looking at an additional few tenths of an inch by Thursday morning. Then some clearing in the day time, with sunshine in the afternoon. Look for a killer sunset. Winds shifts from the strong south westerlies we see all week, to a moderate north wind. Might even get a chance for the surf to clean up a bit. Friday looks fair, with clouds filling back in through the day. Daytime temps remain in the upper 50s, but with some cooler air and a clearer sky, night time lows drop back down to the low 40s. Next system up stream arrives late Friday night.
This storm can be seen on the satellite spinning offshore. It has a good amount of moisture with it, but its main plug is expected to be just to our north. Again. Not far enough north to hit the drought areas hard, but far just a hair north to spare us. As it sits now. Looks like the rain will begin in the early morning hours Saturday and rain pretty heavy through the afternoon, before shifting east. This one looks swift, so we may not see big accumulations from it. About a half inch by Sunday mid day.
We could see another storm as early as next Tuesday night and lasting through the middle of next week. And another next weekend, and another the following week. Word on the street is we are now officially in weak El Nino, so there is that.
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Cranking Up.
Forecast models come to agreement that we are going to get walloped. GFS is calling for five to seven inches of rain over the next week. That is a lot, and everyone should prepare for some more flooding, downed trees and power lines, along with issues on the commute. Wednesday morning looks like the roughest drive of the week, but things will be rough Tuesday through Thursday. Here is the nitty gritty as I see it now. Monday will be cloudy and cool in the morning, with some light rain likely by afternoon. We are only looking at about a tenth of an inch by night fall, so not too much. The temperature is likely to stay steady in the mid 50s in the evening, as rain becomes more likely. Southerly winds increase through the day, with gusts to about 30mph by dark, and to 45mph overnight. There is an AR stream just to our north during this period, so it is hard to tell when it will begin to hit us directly. Until it does, we will remain warmish, and less wet. It looks like it will begin to take aim at us Tuesday.
Temps remain in the 50s, rising to near 60F mid day. Rainfall rates increase through the day. Possibly as light as showers at sunrise, but likely a moderate to heavy rainfall by afternoon. Winds lighten during the day, but pick up overnight again. Strong and southerly through the period. We likely will see an inch from Monday sunset through Tuesday sunset. An additional 1.5 inches by Wednesday sunset. The heaviest rains are expected overnight on Tuesday. Wednesday morning will be in the low 50s, as the rain subsided through the morning. With luck, the Farmer's Market will not be too wet. Temps rise into the low 60s. Showers continue into the evening.
Thursday might give us some sun and some warmth. Showers could persist though. All in all, we are looking at two to four inches of rain in town during this period, with perhaps more than that in the local mountains. We are moving into the record breaking territory for the month of February. The CA Drought Monitor now has 67% of the state completely out of drought, with 29% Abnormally Dry. These are areas in the north, and San Diego to Arizona, south of the Salton Sea, along with a credence around the southern rim of the Sierra. That leaves 2.4% and 1.4%, along the northern border, in Moderate and Severe Drought. We are moving in the right direction.
More wet weather for the weekend, and possibly next week. It seems we are in the opposite pattern as the drought. It keeps on looking like we will have a dry period ten days out, but as we get closer, things get wetter.
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| Mike used up some frequent flyer miles to get this hang time. Dog Leg, Kirkwood. |
Temps remain in the 50s, rising to near 60F mid day. Rainfall rates increase through the day. Possibly as light as showers at sunrise, but likely a moderate to heavy rainfall by afternoon. Winds lighten during the day, but pick up overnight again. Strong and southerly through the period. We likely will see an inch from Monday sunset through Tuesday sunset. An additional 1.5 inches by Wednesday sunset. The heaviest rains are expected overnight on Tuesday. Wednesday morning will be in the low 50s, as the rain subsided through the morning. With luck, the Farmer's Market will not be too wet. Temps rise into the low 60s. Showers continue into the evening.
Thursday might give us some sun and some warmth. Showers could persist though. All in all, we are looking at two to four inches of rain in town during this period, with perhaps more than that in the local mountains. We are moving into the record breaking territory for the month of February. The CA Drought Monitor now has 67% of the state completely out of drought, with 29% Abnormally Dry. These are areas in the north, and San Diego to Arizona, south of the Salton Sea, along with a credence around the southern rim of the Sierra. That leaves 2.4% and 1.4%, along the northern border, in Moderate and Severe Drought. We are moving in the right direction.
More wet weather for the weekend, and possibly next week. It seems we are in the opposite pattern as the drought. It keeps on looking like we will have a dry period ten days out, but as we get closer, things get wetter.
Saturday, February 23, 2019
And Keeps On Giving.
Cold weather through the middle of next week. Storms likely stay north through then as well. I did not post much last week as I was in the Sierra sampling the snowpack. I can attest it is deep and has a great surface for schussing. From what I hear, plenty of other people were out today sampling that same snow pack. I prefer doing it during the week, and during the storms. Kirkwood was a ghost town much of last week. Wednesday was especially quiet, with a nice southwest flow, and fresh fluff falling. One of those days that just gets better with every lift. And it was cold. In the teens. Still is chilly, as it was down here. We were in the upper 50s much of today, but with that cold breeze, it did feel a bit cooler. Temps are in the upper 40s now and will drop to about 40F overnight. Sunday should be chilly, in the upper 50s, with cloud cover developing through late morning.
Then things get interesting. And here is where I back track just a bit. See, there is a storm coming. Perhaps even an Atmospheric River. When and where is not exactly certain. But I'll walk you through the 18Z GFS. Tomorrow the rain will be well to our north; enough so that we don't have any chance of it falling here. By Monday, the stream of moisture coming off the Pacific will be in the northern portion of California. We could see some light rain here late in the day, but at this point, that is not looking likely. It will remain chilly, in the 50s, on Monday. Monday night and Tuesday, we continue to see the rain system move south, but we are still expected to be on the southern fringe. Maybe we are looking at a half inch of rain by Tuesday dusk. Of course, this could increase with a sight southerly shift. It will be raining hard just to our north. An inch or two every twelve hours. It will be a bit warmer Tuesday, as SW flow ushers in warmer air.
Tuesday night is when we get hit. About an inch of rain over night, and almost as much on Wednesday. It will be another heavy rainfall. While it will be over a week since the last rainfall, this one will add a lot of water to a still saturated ground. Plan of some commuting delays Wednesday. The air will continue to warm, and we will be in the low 60s. Things settle down over night, and by Thursday we will be in the wake of the storm. It will be the warmest day of the week, in the ow 60s. It may also me one of the nicest, and just a short break before another system arrives for the weekend. This one looks colder, but not as cold as the last three weeks. Update on that as we get closer.
For now, enjoy the fine weather this weekend and maybe early Monday. Storm arrives by Tuesday, and rages into Wednesday morning. A break Thursday and more rain possible for next weekend.
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| Corey Lochan and Deadwood Peak, caked in cold snow. We have water. More is coming. |
Then things get interesting. And here is where I back track just a bit. See, there is a storm coming. Perhaps even an Atmospheric River. When and where is not exactly certain. But I'll walk you through the 18Z GFS. Tomorrow the rain will be well to our north; enough so that we don't have any chance of it falling here. By Monday, the stream of moisture coming off the Pacific will be in the northern portion of California. We could see some light rain here late in the day, but at this point, that is not looking likely. It will remain chilly, in the 50s, on Monday. Monday night and Tuesday, we continue to see the rain system move south, but we are still expected to be on the southern fringe. Maybe we are looking at a half inch of rain by Tuesday dusk. Of course, this could increase with a sight southerly shift. It will be raining hard just to our north. An inch or two every twelve hours. It will be a bit warmer Tuesday, as SW flow ushers in warmer air.
Tuesday night is when we get hit. About an inch of rain over night, and almost as much on Wednesday. It will be another heavy rainfall. While it will be over a week since the last rainfall, this one will add a lot of water to a still saturated ground. Plan of some commuting delays Wednesday. The air will continue to warm, and we will be in the low 60s. Things settle down over night, and by Thursday we will be in the wake of the storm. It will be the warmest day of the week, in the ow 60s. It may also me one of the nicest, and just a short break before another system arrives for the weekend. This one looks colder, but not as cold as the last three weeks. Update on that as we get closer.
For now, enjoy the fine weather this weekend and maybe early Monday. Storm arrives by Tuesday, and rages into Wednesday morning. A break Thursday and more rain possible for next weekend.
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Winter is Cold.
Up in the Sierra there is 14 to 23 feet of new snow in the last two and half weeks. It is currently cold, with highs in the 20s. This is as good as it gets in Tahoe. For those of you not enjoying the winter wonderland that is out there, think spring. We will have mountains stacked with snow through June this year, even if it were to stop snowing now. But that is not quite going to happen. The next few storms look really light with just a few inches, but continued cold through months end.
Santa Cruz is a bit warmer, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s. Not much change in that this week. An inside slider tomorrow could bring light rain, but the storm is mostly east of Santa Cruz. It will reenforce cod air, and there is an outside chance of snow in town Wednesday night. Get up early to enjoy the outing on Thursday. Sun returns for Friday, but another storm to our east brings cold winds and a slight chance of showers this coming weekend.
The following week currently looks sunny, with high pressure. Still, we are seeing the suggestion of a storm under cutting the high and getting to us the middle of next week. There is even a stronger suggestion that we could see storms return by the first weekend of March. So much for fair weather. At least we are getting our water. More to come.
Santa Cruz is a bit warmer, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s. Not much change in that this week. An inside slider tomorrow could bring light rain, but the storm is mostly east of Santa Cruz. It will reenforce cod air, and there is an outside chance of snow in town Wednesday night. Get up early to enjoy the outing on Thursday. Sun returns for Friday, but another storm to our east brings cold winds and a slight chance of showers this coming weekend.
The following week currently looks sunny, with high pressure. Still, we are seeing the suggestion of a storm under cutting the high and getting to us the middle of next week. There is even a stronger suggestion that we could see storms return by the first weekend of March. So much for fair weather. At least we are getting our water. More to come.
Friday, February 15, 2019
Cooler and Calmer.
Winds are down from last night. Temps are also down. Mid 40s out there at 6:30 this evening. The heaviest rain is behind us, but we did see a pretty strong squall this afternoon around 4PM. Rains were heavy at times, but accumulation was less than the original forecast. NOAA pulled way back on their forecast Wednesday afternoon, and form there it looked pretty accurate. Almost a half inch fell today, and a little more than a half inch fell yesterday. All in, we are looking at about 2.5 inches storm total so far. We could see some more showers, and even a short squall. A half inch by Monday, at most, and most of that tonight and Saturday night. And then we get two days of mostly sunshine. Good news. We need that sun now. Water, not so much.
A third of the state is completely out of drought, and another 50% just Abnormally Dry. Less than 10% is designated as Moderate, and about 1% Severe. The northern boarder and San Diego are basically it. As of reports released yesterday. With the rain today and this weekend, we should see continued improvements. Not to mention the systems expected for the middle of next week and maybe the following weekend. I promise, beyond that, we will see a high pressure. I hope, As much as I always say we need water, right now, we need to dry out. Trees are falling across the highway, and crushing houses. Mud slides are beginning to become a real concern, and that will last for weeks, even with no more rain.
Cold for the week ahead. This morning was the warmest it will get. Lows in the low 40s tonight, high on Saturday in the low 50s. Lows dip into the upper, and then mid 30s. Highs will climb to the mid 50s next week, and will especially feel warm on the sunny days.
Rain tonight, chance of showers Saturday. Rain Saturday night, chance of showers Sunday. Clearing Sunday night, sunny Monday and Tuesday. Clouds on Wednesday, with a chance for more showers into Thursday. More on that as we get closer. Just want to note we are not out of the weeds yet.
Be careful out there folks as you drive over the mountain. Or on the back roads. Or if you venture near the ocean. A large long period swell arrive today. Reading 18.5 feet at 17 seconds as of now. While a lot of that height is likely wind swell stacked on top, that is pretty hefty. Breakers will sweep well up the rocks and cliffs at the coast. Use plenty of caution. And you are thinking of charging this weekend, please be careful. It is going to take several days for the ocean to settle and calming make for good riding conditions. If you can wait, Monday and Tuesday look much better, if a bit smaller.
A third of the state is completely out of drought, and another 50% just Abnormally Dry. Less than 10% is designated as Moderate, and about 1% Severe. The northern boarder and San Diego are basically it. As of reports released yesterday. With the rain today and this weekend, we should see continued improvements. Not to mention the systems expected for the middle of next week and maybe the following weekend. I promise, beyond that, we will see a high pressure. I hope, As much as I always say we need water, right now, we need to dry out. Trees are falling across the highway, and crushing houses. Mud slides are beginning to become a real concern, and that will last for weeks, even with no more rain.
Cold for the week ahead. This morning was the warmest it will get. Lows in the low 40s tonight, high on Saturday in the low 50s. Lows dip into the upper, and then mid 30s. Highs will climb to the mid 50s next week, and will especially feel warm on the sunny days.
Rain tonight, chance of showers Saturday. Rain Saturday night, chance of showers Sunday. Clearing Sunday night, sunny Monday and Tuesday. Clouds on Wednesday, with a chance for more showers into Thursday. More on that as we get closer. Just want to note we are not out of the weeds yet.
Be careful out there folks as you drive over the mountain. Or on the back roads. Or if you venture near the ocean. A large long period swell arrive today. Reading 18.5 feet at 17 seconds as of now. While a lot of that height is likely wind swell stacked on top, that is pretty hefty. Breakers will sweep well up the rocks and cliffs at the coast. Use plenty of caution. And you are thinking of charging this weekend, please be careful. It is going to take several days for the ocean to settle and calming make for good riding conditions. If you can wait, Monday and Tuesday look much better, if a bit smaller.
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Warm, Wet and Wild.
Mid 40s this morning on the west side. That is balmy. Almost two inches of rain since this started last night at 9PM. It has been a steady pounding all night, and we are already seeing some urban flooding. The roads are very wet. Slow your roll and be cautious. As of 7:30, the rain has subsided, but the winds are still raging out of the south. 38mph out at sea and 19mph at the Marine Lab. Rain is expected to continue today and tonight, so this respite is short. We still have a forecast of 1.75-2.5 inches of more rain by late Thursday. That is a ton, on top of the two we have already seen (and blew away our forecast). Expect doom downed trees and power line, especially in the mountains, by this evening. We are in the midst of a Pineapple Express fighting an Arctic Low. It will be quite the storm show for us to enjoy.
We remain mild for the next two days. Not too warm endnote too cold. In fact, the high today is expected to be around 57F, and the low tonight around 54F. By Thursday evening a cold front should pass through, dropping the temperature several degrees. Lows return to the mid 40s Thursday, low 40s for the weekend and upper 30s early next week. Showers continue through Saturday or Sunday. More on this later. Got to get the kiddo off to school. For now, wear a rain coat.
Edit & Update: This morning I was looking at a Bonny Noon gauge when I said almost two inches. Here on the west side we were about one inch of rain as of 7:30 this morning and now sitting at about 1.6 inches. Looking at the radar, the main AR is still aimed at us, or even a touch north. It will stay at about this trajectory through this evening and then move south. We should continue to see some heavy rain over the next 24 hours, but are currently sitting in a shadow. Hoping we are still in the shadow when I hit up the market this afternoon.
We remain mild for the next two days. Not too warm endnote too cold. In fact, the high today is expected to be around 57F, and the low tonight around 54F. By Thursday evening a cold front should pass through, dropping the temperature several degrees. Lows return to the mid 40s Thursday, low 40s for the weekend and upper 30s early next week. Showers continue through Saturday or Sunday. More on this later. Got to get the kiddo off to school. For now, wear a rain coat.
Edit & Update: This morning I was looking at a Bonny Noon gauge when I said almost two inches. Here on the west side we were about one inch of rain as of 7:30 this morning and now sitting at about 1.6 inches. Looking at the radar, the main AR is still aimed at us, or even a touch north. It will stay at about this trajectory through this evening and then move south. We should continue to see some heavy rain over the next 24 hours, but are currently sitting in a shadow. Hoping we are still in the shadow when I hit up the market this afternoon.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Cold Smoke
We went up to Kirkwood to enjoy the storm these past three days. Wow. Cold, dry, deep powder was the name of the game. Even our sled runs were deep. The best dove under a tree branch and then banked a turn, all three feet below the snow surface. It felt like sledding down through a tunnel. Good times. The mountain is skiing very good, and the snowpack is now at mid-high tide. The small cliff bands are now just roll overs and the big stuff is starting to come into play. If you have you heart set on Heart Chute, this may be the season.
Here in Santa Cruz, it is continued cold in the mornings. Upper 30s at 6AM on the west side, but it was down in the ow 30s a few hours ago. Tie Gulch in reading in the upper 20s. It is cold out there. Yesterday warmed into the mid 50s, and today we are expecting more of the same. Mild and sunny. Good thing we got the last few days, as the rain returns tonight, and in earnest. Like up to a half inch by Wednesday morning, and that is just the start of it. This storm is a little different than the last two. First, it is the collision of two systems. A Kona Low, generating an Atmospheric River, aimed just to our south, and a cold northern hemisphere low pressure moving south out of Canada. It will be the war of warm versus cold.
On Wednesday, that warm AR will be winning, driving right over us, giving us copious rain, and temperatures staying in the 50s overnight. We are forecast to see almost two inches of rain here intern from 3AM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday. That is a good deal of rain for 24 hours, especially seeing we could have another quarter inch in the six hours preceding the heavy rain, and a god deal in the day after. This is a heavy rain event folks, and we will likely see some urban and creek flooding. Remember, it was raining just a few days ago. And a few days before that. And a few days before that. The ground is still super saturated, and that leads to mud slides. Please give your selves ample time on the Wednesday commute. Both ways.
On Thursday, the the cold low pushes south, and the AR moves south with it. Temperatures will drop with the cold front, and the rain will become much less heavy. Daytime high will be in the mid 50s (down form that balmy upper 50s forecast for Wednesday), but night time lows will make a bigger dip. First into he upper 40s, then lower 40s by the weekend. The cold low will provide much lower rain fall rates, but could continue moving rain bands over the region into the weekend. Thursday we are expecting up to a quarter inch of rain, the showery and cool weather into the weekend.
Good news is that sunshine is on the horizon. As we move into President's week, we will be in a cool pattern, with storms moving out of the north, main to our east. We might see some light precipitation from a passing system, but mostly expecting fair weather. The following week, the trough is supposed to move further west, giving us a break in storms, and setting up a high pressure for the last week of the month. It could become gorgeous out there. And speaking of gorgeous, that sunrise going off right now is just that.
Here in Santa Cruz, it is continued cold in the mornings. Upper 30s at 6AM on the west side, but it was down in the ow 30s a few hours ago. Tie Gulch in reading in the upper 20s. It is cold out there. Yesterday warmed into the mid 50s, and today we are expecting more of the same. Mild and sunny. Good thing we got the last few days, as the rain returns tonight, and in earnest. Like up to a half inch by Wednesday morning, and that is just the start of it. This storm is a little different than the last two. First, it is the collision of two systems. A Kona Low, generating an Atmospheric River, aimed just to our south, and a cold northern hemisphere low pressure moving south out of Canada. It will be the war of warm versus cold.
On Wednesday, that warm AR will be winning, driving right over us, giving us copious rain, and temperatures staying in the 50s overnight. We are forecast to see almost two inches of rain here intern from 3AM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday. That is a good deal of rain for 24 hours, especially seeing we could have another quarter inch in the six hours preceding the heavy rain, and a god deal in the day after. This is a heavy rain event folks, and we will likely see some urban and creek flooding. Remember, it was raining just a few days ago. And a few days before that. And a few days before that. The ground is still super saturated, and that leads to mud slides. Please give your selves ample time on the Wednesday commute. Both ways.
On Thursday, the the cold low pushes south, and the AR moves south with it. Temperatures will drop with the cold front, and the rain will become much less heavy. Daytime high will be in the mid 50s (down form that balmy upper 50s forecast for Wednesday), but night time lows will make a bigger dip. First into he upper 40s, then lower 40s by the weekend. The cold low will provide much lower rain fall rates, but could continue moving rain bands over the region into the weekend. Thursday we are expecting up to a quarter inch of rain, the showery and cool weather into the weekend.
Good news is that sunshine is on the horizon. As we move into President's week, we will be in a cool pattern, with storms moving out of the north, main to our east. We might see some light precipitation from a passing system, but mostly expecting fair weather. The following week, the trough is supposed to move further west, giving us a break in storms, and setting up a high pressure for the last week of the month. It could become gorgeous out there. And speaking of gorgeous, that sunrise going off right now is just that.
Friday, February 8, 2019
More Rain And Local Snow.
Yesterday was pretty damn nice. Crisp, for the most part, but that sun sure felt warm after another morning with lows around 32F. This morning is a touch warmer, as the next system is bringing in warmer air in front of it. About 40F just before sunrise. We wake to a mostly cloudy sky. There was a short drizzle last night, but it looks like the rain will hold off for at least a few hours today. GFS still suggesting rain will hold off until evening, but NOAA, which uses the GFS for their forecast, suggest rain before noon. I think we could see some showery weather today, but the rain storm comes around sunset. It could moderate to heavy at times this evening, and then returning to showers by sunrise Saturday. Looking at about 3/4" of rain by then, and a low of around 42F, which puts the freezing level just above 3000 feet.
This weekend looks slightly wet. Showers could persist through the entire weekend, as a second storm dives down from the north, just barely to our east. That will increase precipitation rates Saturday night, into Sunday morning. Showers back off Sunday afternoon, with a slight chance for light rain Sunday night. Freezing levels are expected to drop back down to about 1200' on Sunday night, so another dusting of the local peaks is likely for viewing on Monday morning.
If you look at our mid endlong range forecast, it is pretty damn wet. Chance of rain or showers every day for the next ten days. The big news here is that a storm dropping from the north, bringing cold air, might interact with a subtropical, and warm moisture feed coming off the Pacific around the middle of next week. The GFS the last few runs have suggested Armageddon. It backed off from that a good deal with the 06z run today, but we could see a lot of rain middle to end of next week. Check back here and other sources to stay prepared. Travel in the local mountains could be quite treacherous at times. Getting to the Sierra could be seriously delayed.
This weekend looks slightly wet. Showers could persist through the entire weekend, as a second storm dives down from the north, just barely to our east. That will increase precipitation rates Saturday night, into Sunday morning. Showers back off Sunday afternoon, with a slight chance for light rain Sunday night. Freezing levels are expected to drop back down to about 1200' on Sunday night, so another dusting of the local peaks is likely for viewing on Monday morning.
If you look at our mid endlong range forecast, it is pretty damn wet. Chance of rain or showers every day for the next ten days. The big news here is that a storm dropping from the north, bringing cold air, might interact with a subtropical, and warm moisture feed coming off the Pacific around the middle of next week. The GFS the last few runs have suggested Armageddon. It backed off from that a good deal with the 06z run today, but we could see a lot of rain middle to end of next week. Check back here and other sources to stay prepared. Travel in the local mountains could be quite treacherous at times. Getting to the Sierra could be seriously delayed.
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Cold and Snowy.
Yup, here in Santa Cruz it is freezing. Temps across town are in the low 30s. King and Van Ness, along with many other locations are registering 32F. Right out on West Cliff, and on the Wharf, resigns are 35F. That is chilly folks. Low 30s and upper 20s in the Santa Cruz Mountains. And there is snow up there above 1500 feet. If you did not so yesterday, get down to the water and have a look around the bay. There are snow caped mountains all around us. My Ununhum, at just under 3600 feet is caked with snow. We never had a view of Junipero Serra in good light, but at almost 6000 feet must have gotten a good sparkling of snow on its top half. It is game on for skiing with views of the Pacific, if you don't mind a bunch of bushwhacking.
Today will be mostly clear and crisp. A touch warmer than yesterday which barely climbed to 50F. Looks like another cold night ahead of us. Repeat on Thursday, and then on Friday, we see another cold storm moving in from the north. This really feels like winter. Snow levels will be a bit higher than the end of this last storm; more like Sunday night, at about 3000 feet. That would mean some more snow for the higher peaks in our region. As it looks now, we should see just clouds moving in Friday morning, with rain holding off until later in the afternoon. This is not a big rain maker, maybe a quarter inch overnight. Saturday also looks wet, as does the weekend. Showers both days, with moderate rain expected to return Sunday evening. About an inch total of rain through mid day Monday. There is a lot of changing in the models from run to run, but it looks like we should see a break next week, for at least a few days, before more rain moves in. This is turning out to be an excellent February for water and snow. DeLaveaga is currently at 3.77 inches just 5 days into the month; nearly half as much that we received in all of the previous month. And more is on the way.
In the Sierra, five to nine feet snow was recorded at the resorts. They are digging out. Much of that snow fell at very low temperatures and is super low density. With the continued cold this week and weekend, we can expect for some of the best riding of the season. Today should be gangbusters with resorts getting more terrain open. It may take until tomorrow to get all the roads, passes and ski lifts in Tahoe open, up and running. This was a massive storm up there. With snow coming for the weekend, please be prepared if you plan to drive in the Sierra. As it stands now, Sunday could be another stormy day, with pass closures by afternoon. Plan accordingly.
And finally, surf has been cleaning up front he storms. We have a bunch of wind swell out there, and a bit of ground swell. While it might not actually get organized until later in the week, with more storms coming, there is a short window to get out there. Town is looking fairly lined up this morning, but swamped with the higher tide. Still, the view should be great out there, with snow capped peaks looking down on you. Get out there and get some.
Today will be mostly clear and crisp. A touch warmer than yesterday which barely climbed to 50F. Looks like another cold night ahead of us. Repeat on Thursday, and then on Friday, we see another cold storm moving in from the north. This really feels like winter. Snow levels will be a bit higher than the end of this last storm; more like Sunday night, at about 3000 feet. That would mean some more snow for the higher peaks in our region. As it looks now, we should see just clouds moving in Friday morning, with rain holding off until later in the afternoon. This is not a big rain maker, maybe a quarter inch overnight. Saturday also looks wet, as does the weekend. Showers both days, with moderate rain expected to return Sunday evening. About an inch total of rain through mid day Monday. There is a lot of changing in the models from run to run, but it looks like we should see a break next week, for at least a few days, before more rain moves in. This is turning out to be an excellent February for water and snow. DeLaveaga is currently at 3.77 inches just 5 days into the month; nearly half as much that we received in all of the previous month. And more is on the way.
In the Sierra, five to nine feet snow was recorded at the resorts. They are digging out. Much of that snow fell at very low temperatures and is super low density. With the continued cold this week and weekend, we can expect for some of the best riding of the season. Today should be gangbusters with resorts getting more terrain open. It may take until tomorrow to get all the roads, passes and ski lifts in Tahoe open, up and running. This was a massive storm up there. With snow coming for the weekend, please be prepared if you plan to drive in the Sierra. As it stands now, Sunday could be another stormy day, with pass closures by afternoon. Plan accordingly.
And finally, surf has been cleaning up front he storms. We have a bunch of wind swell out there, and a bit of ground swell. While it might not actually get organized until later in the week, with more storms coming, there is a short window to get out there. Town is looking fairly lined up this morning, but swamped with the higher tide. Still, the view should be great out there, with snow capped peaks looking down on you. Get out there and get some.
Monday, February 4, 2019
Last of the Big Waves
About a half inch fell overnight on the westside. Almost another quarter inch since sunrise. Rain has been steady for the last hour, but there is not a whole lot of solid rainfall west of us. This might be the last of the heavy bands. That doesn't mean we won't see another half inch before tomorrow. But the sky is the brightest it has been in days. So there is that. Chilly out there today and it will remain so for the next week or so. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s the next few nights. Freezing level is about 3000 feet right now, and there is wet snow falling at Castle Rock State Park. Could be a good day for a snowy hike tomorrow. Should be in the low 50s on the coast and upper 30s at the summit. Otherwise, not much of a change in forecast.
Freezing levels drop below 2000 feet overnight. They may even get as low as 800 feet, which is just above Scotts Valley. The roads could be very slick Tuesday morning, especially over the summit. We could even see some road closures, but I'm not really expecting that. The next few days will be chilly. Sun comes out Tuesday and sticks around for a few days. Next system upstream could arrive as early as Tuesday, and may put some more snow on the ground below 6000 feet. It sure is winter.
Drought conditions have improved. Almost a quarter of the state is completely out of drought and just a little over fifty percent is listed as Abnormally Dry. That only leaves about 22% listed in Moderate Drought and less than 2% Severe Drought. Three years since end of the period of really dry winters and we still have a ways to go. Still, we have made more back than we have lost. And these reports are from a week ago, so the last three and half inches here on the coast have not even been counted. And there looks like we will get more later this week, especially in the north where conditions are driest. So we are in pretty good shape.
Freezing levels drop below 2000 feet overnight. They may even get as low as 800 feet, which is just above Scotts Valley. The roads could be very slick Tuesday morning, especially over the summit. We could even see some road closures, but I'm not really expecting that. The next few days will be chilly. Sun comes out Tuesday and sticks around for a few days. Next system upstream could arrive as early as Tuesday, and may put some more snow on the ground below 6000 feet. It sure is winter.
Drought conditions have improved. Almost a quarter of the state is completely out of drought and just a little over fifty percent is listed as Abnormally Dry. That only leaves about 22% listed in Moderate Drought and less than 2% Severe Drought. Three years since end of the period of really dry winters and we still have a ways to go. Still, we have made more back than we have lost. And these reports are from a week ago, so the last three and half inches here on the coast have not even been counted. And there looks like we will get more later this week, especially in the north where conditions are driest. So we are in pretty good shape.
Last of the Big Bands.
About a half inch fell overnight on the westside. Almost another quarter inch since sunrise. Rain has been steady for the last hour, but there is not a whole lot of solid rainfall west of us. This might be the last of the heavy bands. That doesn't mean we won't see another half inch before tomorrow. But the sky is the brightest it has been in days. So there is that. Chilly out there today and it will remain so for the next week or so. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s the next few nights. Freezing level is about 3000 feet right now, and there is wet snow falling at Castle Rock State Park. Could be a good day for a snowy hike tomorrow. Should be in the low 50s on the coast and upper 30s at the summit. Otherwise, not much of a change in forecast.
Freezing levels drop below 2000 feet overnight. They may even get as low as 800 feet, which is just above Scotts Valley. The roads could be very slick Tuesday morning, especially over the summit. We could even see some road closures, but I'm not really expecting that. The next few days will be chilly. Sun comes out Tuesday and sticks around for a few days. Next system upstream could arrive as early as Tuesday, and may put some more snow on the ground below 6000 feet. It sure is winter.
Drought conditions have improved. Almost a quarter of the state is completely out of drought and just a little over fifty percent is listed as Abnormally Dry. That only leaves about 22% listed in Moderate Drought and less than 2% Severe Drought. Three years since end of the period of really dry winters and we still have a ways to go. Still, we have made more back than we have lost. And these reports are from a week ago, so the last three and half inches here on the coast have not even been counted. And there looks like we will get more later this week, especially in the north where conditions are driest. So we are in pretty good shape.
Freezing levels drop below 2000 feet overnight. They may even get as low as 800 feet, which is just above Scotts Valley. The roads could be very slick Tuesday morning, especially over the summit. We could even see some road closures, but I'm not really expecting that. The next few days will be chilly. Sun comes out Tuesday and sticks around for a few days. Next system upstream could arrive as early as Tuesday, and may put some more snow on the ground below 6000 feet. It sure is winter.
Drought conditions have improved. Almost a quarter of the state is completely out of drought and just a little over fifty percent is listed as Abnormally Dry. That only leaves about 22% listed in Moderate Drought and less than 2% Severe Drought. Three years since end of the period of really dry winters and we still have a ways to go. Still, we have made more back than we have lost. And these reports are from a week ago, so the last three and half inches here on the coast have not even been counted. And there looks like we will get more later this week, especially in the north where conditions are driest. So we are in pretty good shape.
Saturday, February 2, 2019
Big Change Since Last Night.
That storm pushed onshore a lot faster than expected. That has both shifted when we get the heaviest rain and hit much we will get. In short, the first, and strongest, band of rain has already moved to our east. It is pretty impressive and currently effecting the Central Valley in an arc from Point Mendocino to Point Conception. A secondary, and much milder, band is is setting up along our coast.
This by no means is to suggest the rain is over for today, just that it will be much lighter than forecast. With the storm moving through so quickly, a lot rain fell last night. A little over an inch here on the westside and and inch and a half in the hills above town. And while we had a break for a few hours just now that rain just started up again. I'd expect bands of precipitation to move through until mid day, and maybe we get a little more showery weather by this afternoon. That is good news for those of us who like to get out and hike in this weather. And my son's afternoon swim school class.
It is currently 50F out there and not expected to get much warmer than that over the next few days. In fact, the big news is the colder air filtering in with each new wave of storms. By Wednesday morning, we could be looking at morning temperatures in the mid to low 30s. Freezing levels are expected to drop down to between 2000 and 1000 feet above sea level. That would mean we would see snow on the top of Route 17. And on the top of the mountains around the Bay. Anyone want to hike for some turns or a snowball fight? Tuesday and Wednesday are the days.
This storm is just now reaching the Sierra. A few inches on the ground already, but a lot more to come in the next 24 hours. And then, sort of a break Sunday morning to mid day, then colder air and lot more snow. Forecast models last night were calling for up to 6 feet at lake level with a to more at the peaks. Like u to 10 feet, with localized amounts of 13 feet. This is a Tahoe storm.
A grey sky and winds are the name of the game today. Rain this morning, with showers by afternoon, and maybe a big enough break to get out for a hike.
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| Impressive band of moisture arcing across the state. |
It is currently 50F out there and not expected to get much warmer than that over the next few days. In fact, the big news is the colder air filtering in with each new wave of storms. By Wednesday morning, we could be looking at morning temperatures in the mid to low 30s. Freezing levels are expected to drop down to between 2000 and 1000 feet above sea level. That would mean we would see snow on the top of Route 17. And on the top of the mountains around the Bay. Anyone want to hike for some turns or a snowball fight? Tuesday and Wednesday are the days.
This storm is just now reaching the Sierra. A few inches on the ground already, but a lot more to come in the next 24 hours. And then, sort of a break Sunday morning to mid day, then colder air and lot more snow. Forecast models last night were calling for up to 6 feet at lake level with a to more at the peaks. Like u to 10 feet, with localized amounts of 13 feet. This is a Tahoe storm.
A grey sky and winds are the name of the game today. Rain this morning, with showers by afternoon, and maybe a big enough break to get out for a hike.
Friday, February 1, 2019
Wet Start to February.
Pretty spot on with the rain starting at 4PM, with a chance of showers earlier. We saw some light rain from 1:20 this afternoon until just before 2PM, but then a break until just about 4PM. Only a few hundredths of an inch so far. Winds are gusty from the south. 25mph on the Monterey Buoy and 34mph on the outer buoy. That is strong. 13mph at the yacht harbor. Rain is light right now, but the storm is just offshore and will pour onshore in the next few hours. In fact, rain is falling on the Humboldt, Marin, San Mateo and Santa Barbara coastlines. It looks like we will see some light rain and showers, develop into moderate to heavy rain around midnight. The heaviest rain falls between just before sunrise into the early afternoon on Saturday. By sunset Saturday it looks like we will see about an inch and a half of rain. We should be expecting some minor creek and urban flooding tomorrow.
The ground is still very wet from the past week's rain. The coastal bluffs are bogged out after all that water has finally run off the hills. Adding more to the drainages is going to have a big impact. There is not a lot of room in the soil for more water. King street, around Van Ness and Laurel will likely have some deep water spots by afternoon. The trails will have water running in them in the Pogonip. Luckily the next few waves of storms do not look quite as severe. By evening this first storm will be mainly east of us, effect Sierra. Big Sur could continue to see heavy rains. About an additional half inch over night by Sunday morning.
Rain and south winds continue into Sunday. The storm will be backing off Sunday morning, but ramping back up Sunday night. We will likely see a decent break in the storm during the daytime hours, as it looks now. Still, we could see a quarter inch or more of rain during the daylight hours. From Sunday night through Monday afternoon, more rain. Wind looks like it will be setting uo north westerly, but the storm won't be behind us. Perhaps another inch plus of rain during this period. The rain backs off again in the evening Monday, but showers sick around into Tuesday. Wednesday even. Another quarter inch or more. Kind of feeling tough to count. GFS says four plus inches intern and five to seven in the Santa Cruz Mountains. That is a lot.
With winds blowing tonight into Monday, and saturated grounds, it might be a good idea to check on the batteries in the flash lights. And cozy down snacks are stocked in the pantry. Could be a wet and wild weekend for sure, and you want to save up your energy for what is sure to be a crazy Monday morning commute.
Speaking of flooding, we are going to get another moderate long period swell filling tonight, along with strong southerly winds, heavy rain fall , and a very high tide for Saturday morning, expect to see some coastal flooding tomorrow morning.
If you are planning on driving up to Tahoe this weekend, be prepared for long car rides. Carry chains, extra food, water and warm clothing to blankets. You may find yourself stuck on Sunday. If you plan to get home to the Bay Area on Sunday, watch the storm and roads closely. They will start hutting at some point and it will take a while for them to reopen. I fully expect 80 to shut down due to accidents on Sunday, and we could see the Spur on 88 close down before then, shuttling everyone in Tahoe over 50. It will be a cluster for sure.
The ground is still very wet from the past week's rain. The coastal bluffs are bogged out after all that water has finally run off the hills. Adding more to the drainages is going to have a big impact. There is not a lot of room in the soil for more water. King street, around Van Ness and Laurel will likely have some deep water spots by afternoon. The trails will have water running in them in the Pogonip. Luckily the next few waves of storms do not look quite as severe. By evening this first storm will be mainly east of us, effect Sierra. Big Sur could continue to see heavy rains. About an additional half inch over night by Sunday morning.
Rain and south winds continue into Sunday. The storm will be backing off Sunday morning, but ramping back up Sunday night. We will likely see a decent break in the storm during the daytime hours, as it looks now. Still, we could see a quarter inch or more of rain during the daylight hours. From Sunday night through Monday afternoon, more rain. Wind looks like it will be setting uo north westerly, but the storm won't be behind us. Perhaps another inch plus of rain during this period. The rain backs off again in the evening Monday, but showers sick around into Tuesday. Wednesday even. Another quarter inch or more. Kind of feeling tough to count. GFS says four plus inches intern and five to seven in the Santa Cruz Mountains. That is a lot.
With winds blowing tonight into Monday, and saturated grounds, it might be a good idea to check on the batteries in the flash lights. And cozy down snacks are stocked in the pantry. Could be a wet and wild weekend for sure, and you want to save up your energy for what is sure to be a crazy Monday morning commute.
Speaking of flooding, we are going to get another moderate long period swell filling tonight, along with strong southerly winds, heavy rain fall , and a very high tide for Saturday morning, expect to see some coastal flooding tomorrow morning.
If you are planning on driving up to Tahoe this weekend, be prepared for long car rides. Carry chains, extra food, water and warm clothing to blankets. You may find yourself stuck on Sunday. If you plan to get home to the Bay Area on Sunday, watch the storm and roads closely. They will start hutting at some point and it will take a while for them to reopen. I fully expect 80 to shut down due to accidents on Sunday, and we could see the Spur on 88 close down before then, shuttling everyone in Tahoe over 50. It will be a cluster for sure.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Swift, Silent, Steep.
Okay, not so silent or steep, but it did come in the wee hours of the night and it was a decent amount. Of rain, that is. Over an inch fell in locations on the West Side, mainly from 11PM until 4AM. Across the country, we saw from three fourths to slightly over one inch or rain last night. That came in a bit stronger than anticipated. The models kept fluctuation though, so again, not surprised. That system is now onshore to our south, bringing pretty solid rain to the I5 corridor south of Tracy, down to Santa Barbara, mostly on a N-S axis. But good news is we got a little more rain into the month of January, bringing us well into the above average range. Yipee. The water years is looking good.
We have a short reprieve today. Sort of. Clouds are still out there as I type. We could even, theoretically, see a brief shower this morning. By noon, clouds are parting, and we might even shift into a predominantly sunny sky by afternoon. Winds are light right now, still a little southerly on the outer buoys. That swings back to an offshore breeze in the morning, slowly clocking around to the SW by sunset, and building in strength tonight. The next system will be pushing toward us for Friday and this one looks to be moving a bit slower, and packing a bigger punch.
The latest GFS guidance still suggest it will take some time for the rain to hit us tomorrow. The Euro is a bit quicker with the onset of precipitation. I'm leaning toward rain moving in after 4PM on Friday, with the potential for some showers prior to then. Wind will be strong for the south on Friday, building through the day. Gusty at times, potentially hitting 40 mph Friday night. Once rain moves in, it will be heavy. Maybe two inches by mid day Saturday. The heart of the storm is east of us by Saturday evening, but light rain could persist through Tuesday. We are looking at up to three inches through the period, but I am thinking we will land right around two and a quarter inches total by Tuesday night. This storm bring some cold air, and we might be lucky enough to see some snow caped peaks to our south when things clear out middle of next week.
Snow will fall in the Sierra. If you are headed up this weekend, plan for some snowy roads and potentially closed passes. Plan to pack water, food, blankets, emergency supplies and tire chains (even if you have an AWD, you need to carry chains). Snow will begin falling Friday night, but only expect a few inches for Saturday morning. The storm arrives in the Sierra on Saturday and rages. A foot an a half at the higher resorts by Sunday, with the storm still kicking into Monday night. We could see three feet on the higher peaks by the time it is done late Tuesday. Cold air settles in behind it. Highs in the 30s Saturday drop to the 20s Sunday and even colder for Monday. It will be winter.
Last day for clean surf is today. We are looking at potentially more storms going into the new month, so while we will have some fair days, it will take a while for the sea to settle. So go out and get on that fun moderate swell in the water right now. I was lucky enough to be out last night around sunset at a ledge near town. The sky was going off. An alien space ship was nearby, glowing through the clouds. We thought we heard thunder, but I am now sure it was some sort of sub woofer drive these aliens use to power their craft. What an experience. And the waves we super fun.
We have a short reprieve today. Sort of. Clouds are still out there as I type. We could even, theoretically, see a brief shower this morning. By noon, clouds are parting, and we might even shift into a predominantly sunny sky by afternoon. Winds are light right now, still a little southerly on the outer buoys. That swings back to an offshore breeze in the morning, slowly clocking around to the SW by sunset, and building in strength tonight. The next system will be pushing toward us for Friday and this one looks to be moving a bit slower, and packing a bigger punch.
The latest GFS guidance still suggest it will take some time for the rain to hit us tomorrow. The Euro is a bit quicker with the onset of precipitation. I'm leaning toward rain moving in after 4PM on Friday, with the potential for some showers prior to then. Wind will be strong for the south on Friday, building through the day. Gusty at times, potentially hitting 40 mph Friday night. Once rain moves in, it will be heavy. Maybe two inches by mid day Saturday. The heart of the storm is east of us by Saturday evening, but light rain could persist through Tuesday. We are looking at up to three inches through the period, but I am thinking we will land right around two and a quarter inches total by Tuesday night. This storm bring some cold air, and we might be lucky enough to see some snow caped peaks to our south when things clear out middle of next week.
Snow will fall in the Sierra. If you are headed up this weekend, plan for some snowy roads and potentially closed passes. Plan to pack water, food, blankets, emergency supplies and tire chains (even if you have an AWD, you need to carry chains). Snow will begin falling Friday night, but only expect a few inches for Saturday morning. The storm arrives in the Sierra on Saturday and rages. A foot an a half at the higher resorts by Sunday, with the storm still kicking into Monday night. We could see three feet on the higher peaks by the time it is done late Tuesday. Cold air settles in behind it. Highs in the 30s Saturday drop to the 20s Sunday and even colder for Monday. It will be winter.
Last day for clean surf is today. We are looking at potentially more storms going into the new month, so while we will have some fair days, it will take a while for the sea to settle. So go out and get on that fun moderate swell in the water right now. I was lucky enough to be out last night around sunset at a ledge near town. The sky was going off. An alien space ship was nearby, glowing through the clouds. We thought we heard thunder, but I am now sure it was some sort of sub woofer drive these aliens use to power their craft. What an experience. And the waves we super fun.
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Brief Shower, Wednesday Night and This Weekend.
Not rally surprised by the clouds and brief shower on the west side this morning. A narrow plume of moisture is coming ashore just to our north right now. This is all that remains of a storm that weakened significantly as it moves southeast. We might see another shower in the next hour or so, but this system is mostly east of us now and will dissipate in the valley through the afternoon. We are still expecting plenty of sunshine today and temps in the low to mid 60s. Yesterday we hit 71.2F around 3:45 yesterday at king and Van Ness. That is when we saw the most sun as well. Swell period has dropped from 15 seconds down to 13 seconds. Height has dropped about a foot as well. Winds are still light. Good day to hit the water. Just don't expect too much.
It is grey right now, but this should break up in the morning. It now looks like Wednesday will be another pleasant day, with more sun than clouds, light winds, and temps in the low to mid 60s. That storm is going to take its time arriving, and will show up after sunset. While it takes its time, it will build some in strength. We are now looking up at a half inch of rain falling Wednesday night. Showers could continue into Thursday morning, but should end well before noon. It will be a quick punch. This storm does not look like it will get much up into the Sierra, as it moves inland, and then south, down through the Central Valley. A decent water maker, but not so much for the snow. Maybe a few inches up on the highest peaks. Light rain below that.
It will be a little cooler behind the storm on Thursday. Clouds should clear a bit, but the sky will not be clear. Light winds again. This mornin's GFS run is suggesting that the Friday storm will also be delayed, perhaps by up to 24 hours. As it looks now, light rain arriving overnight on Friday. The system really pushes on shore in the morning Saturday, and we could see more than a half inch during the day. Storm continues overnight with another half inch, but most of this coming before midnight. Rain continues on Sunday, but the bulk of the system will be in the Sierra by then. This is a pretty big range in timing since yesterday morning's run. Will monitor. Plan for a wet weekend either way. Just might end up with a decent Friday and a wetter Sunday.
It is grey right now, but this should break up in the morning. It now looks like Wednesday will be another pleasant day, with more sun than clouds, light winds, and temps in the low to mid 60s. That storm is going to take its time arriving, and will show up after sunset. While it takes its time, it will build some in strength. We are now looking up at a half inch of rain falling Wednesday night. Showers could continue into Thursday morning, but should end well before noon. It will be a quick punch. This storm does not look like it will get much up into the Sierra, as it moves inland, and then south, down through the Central Valley. A decent water maker, but not so much for the snow. Maybe a few inches up on the highest peaks. Light rain below that.
It will be a little cooler behind the storm on Thursday. Clouds should clear a bit, but the sky will not be clear. Light winds again. This mornin's GFS run is suggesting that the Friday storm will also be delayed, perhaps by up to 24 hours. As it looks now, light rain arriving overnight on Friday. The system really pushes on shore in the morning Saturday, and we could see more than a half inch during the day. Storm continues overnight with another half inch, but most of this coming before midnight. Rain continues on Sunday, but the bulk of the system will be in the Sierra by then. This is a pretty big range in timing since yesterday morning's run. Will monitor. Plan for a wet weekend either way. Just might end up with a decent Friday and a wetter Sunday.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Things Change.
I know I posted about a long period of fair weather. And I meant it. Problem is, Ma Nature disagreed. Anyway, we are still looking at some fine weather to start the week. Before we look at the week ahead, how about a shout out for today. 76.8F at 1:38 this afternoon the west side in late January. Gorgeous. Still warm out there. Only dropped below 60F at 8PM. Add to that a moderate swell and light winds and it was a perfect winter's day. There are a few clouds out there at this point and those should stick around for tomorrow. Another fine day is on tao for Monday. A touch cooler than today, but we could still see temps hitting the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds remain light and northeasterly. Surf remains in the fun range. Tuesday looks similar with a little more clouds cover, a bit cooler and the swell a touch smaller. Then things get a little weird.
We still have high pressure set up right on us, but slowly shifting toward the west, allowing some very weak weather systems to dive down the coast. The first, on Tuesday evening, looks like it will effect the regions to our north and east, bypassing Santa Cruz. But we are talking about missing us by less than 100 miles. That sounds like a big distance, but in comparison to the size of the Earth, it is really close. In meteorological terms, it is a near miss. A slight shift in vector, and we will get some rain Wednesday. Regardless of rainfall, it will cause some brisk north westerly winds to kick up. So clouds, and cooler for hump day, with a slight chance of rain, increasing in the afternoon. At most a tenth of an inch. Of course, if the models show any change over the next 24 hours, I'll post up here.
So, that is the first chance. There are more. What ever happens Wednesday, we should have plenty of sun and lighter winds on Thursday. Expect a high in the mid 60s. That semi storm will usher in a slightly cooler air mass. All in all, still mild. Thing is, another storm, this one a bit wetter, looks like it will drive south on Friday. The 6PM GFS suggest a pretty wet system arriving during the morning Friday, filling in during the day. This is not like the last series of storms, but still, we could be looking at up to a half inch of rain by Saturday morning, and rain continuing into the day beyond that. These type of storms are really hard to predict, as they are riding down the eastern edge of a high pressure and lot depends on the location and strength of that. We won't really know what to expect until Thursday, and even then, it will be an educated guess at best. Still, plan for some rain Friday. Maybe moderate amounts. And fairly stiff south winds. But again, not as strong as the storms earlier in the month.
It currently looks like we will be clear by Sunday as high pressure shifts back east and sets upon us. It also looks like we might see a colder air mass set up after the Friday/Saturday storm. So there is that.
As a note, it looks like we will see some moderate winter swells this week. Early in the week we will see waves back off slowly from the swell that arrived today. Looks like we could see another long period fun sized swell arrive Wednesday, with possible a moderate plus sized long period swell arriving Friday.
Month to date, we have received 7 inches at DeLaveaga. More on gauges here on the west side. It looks like we are about average for the water year and slightly above average for the month of January. Rain mid week will only continue to help out. Much of the state is still in drought. With all the recent rain, we did not see much of a shift in the drought conditions except for the areas most severely hit. Well, that is not completely accurate. We still have .71% of the state listed as Extreme Drought. That did not change, but we saw a drop in the area listed as Severe Drought from 4.83% to 2.73%. We also saw nearly a percentage point drop for those areas listed as Moderate Drought. With area listed as Normal remaining the same, we did see a small increase in area listed as Abnormally Dry. All in all, this is a good shift in our situation, and with rain forecast for the week ahead, we will continue to move in the right direction. That said, please be cognizant of your water use. We are still in a drought condition.
We still have high pressure set up right on us, but slowly shifting toward the west, allowing some very weak weather systems to dive down the coast. The first, on Tuesday evening, looks like it will effect the regions to our north and east, bypassing Santa Cruz. But we are talking about missing us by less than 100 miles. That sounds like a big distance, but in comparison to the size of the Earth, it is really close. In meteorological terms, it is a near miss. A slight shift in vector, and we will get some rain Wednesday. Regardless of rainfall, it will cause some brisk north westerly winds to kick up. So clouds, and cooler for hump day, with a slight chance of rain, increasing in the afternoon. At most a tenth of an inch. Of course, if the models show any change over the next 24 hours, I'll post up here.
So, that is the first chance. There are more. What ever happens Wednesday, we should have plenty of sun and lighter winds on Thursday. Expect a high in the mid 60s. That semi storm will usher in a slightly cooler air mass. All in all, still mild. Thing is, another storm, this one a bit wetter, looks like it will drive south on Friday. The 6PM GFS suggest a pretty wet system arriving during the morning Friday, filling in during the day. This is not like the last series of storms, but still, we could be looking at up to a half inch of rain by Saturday morning, and rain continuing into the day beyond that. These type of storms are really hard to predict, as they are riding down the eastern edge of a high pressure and lot depends on the location and strength of that. We won't really know what to expect until Thursday, and even then, it will be an educated guess at best. Still, plan for some rain Friday. Maybe moderate amounts. And fairly stiff south winds. But again, not as strong as the storms earlier in the month.
It currently looks like we will be clear by Sunday as high pressure shifts back east and sets upon us. It also looks like we might see a colder air mass set up after the Friday/Saturday storm. So there is that.
As a note, it looks like we will see some moderate winter swells this week. Early in the week we will see waves back off slowly from the swell that arrived today. Looks like we could see another long period fun sized swell arrive Wednesday, with possible a moderate plus sized long period swell arriving Friday.
Month to date, we have received 7 inches at DeLaveaga. More on gauges here on the west side. It looks like we are about average for the water year and slightly above average for the month of January. Rain mid week will only continue to help out. Much of the state is still in drought. With all the recent rain, we did not see much of a shift in the drought conditions except for the areas most severely hit. Well, that is not completely accurate. We still have .71% of the state listed as Extreme Drought. That did not change, but we saw a drop in the area listed as Severe Drought from 4.83% to 2.73%. We also saw nearly a percentage point drop for those areas listed as Moderate Drought. With area listed as Normal remaining the same, we did see a small increase in area listed as Abnormally Dry. All in all, this is a good shift in our situation, and with rain forecast for the week ahead, we will continue to move in the right direction. That said, please be cognizant of your water use. We are still in a drought condition.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
About On Track.
I took the past two days and got up to the snow. Unfortunately, the forecast changed just as I locked in my plans. That brief high pressure and awesome weather we just experienced in Santa Cruz was not quite so strong, nor so awesome, up in the Sierra. Still, Friday was superbly fun. The storm had just broken in the morning and all would have been nearly epic if that next system did not roll in around 10AM. A thick cloud of fog enveloped the mountain. It was not PNW pea soup, but a low cloud. And while it did not rain, the snow absorbed that moisture and the cloud acted as a blanket and things got heavy. First few runs in the morning weren't through blower, but it was boot deep, and fluff. Landings were silky. By afternoon, the fresh tracks were still wonderful, there was a noticeable difference in the snow. And my goggles were wet. As was my coat. But still a lot of fun, and did I mention the landings were silky. If anything they improved with the day. So the past week's of 40 plus inches skied only a few inches deep in most spots. Then, around 6PM the drizzle began. It lasted all night. Saturday was firm in the shade and soft in the sun. Felt like spring. Luckily, we have today and tonight.
Here in Santa Cruz, the light rain is back on. We are around .13 inches of rain for today. This is around what was forecast a few days ago. Over the last 48 hour the forecast was getting wetter and wetter. At one point I saw if climb to an inch of rain for today, and was almost that high early this morning. NWS is back down to calling for maybe another tenth inch tonight. Winds have already shifted NW, so that suggest the center of the storm is to our east, and we we see rain end shortly. Right now a solid band is hitting us, and precipitation rates are rising, but this may be the final band as the entire system moves onshore. Monday should be sunny, and mild. Then we go into a warming trend for the week. We could be hitting 70F by late in the work week. Right now it looks like we should peak out around Friday, but the dry weather is forecast to stick around through the end of the month. My math gives us at least ten days of sunshine. The plants are going to go wild.
The Sierra has up to two feet forecast at the crest for this storm. Kirkwood has been getting a lot less snow than the mountains around the north west of the lake. Kirkwood is reporting 42 inches from this last week, while Squaw has 74. That is a big difference. Northstar's 64 to Heavenly's 26. Still, I can attest the coverage at Kirkwood is excellent. I'd still say it is in the slightly low tide range, but much more of a mid tide. And more importantly, what is coverage is caked in snow. I imagine more resorts are in good shape. And if you ask me, this depth of snow is ideal. If we get too much, the mountains are really not quite as much fun as everything flattens out. Anyway, if you can get on it tomorrow, I imagine it will be good. Snow levels today started below 7800', and dropped all day. Currently they are around 6000 feet, so what is falling is all snow at all resorts. And up high it is fluff. Regardless of how this one produces, it will give the entire basin a great recoding, and came in right to bond with the firm surface below. Oh, and the persistent deep slab still exist in the backcountry. If you don't know what I'm talking about, stay out of the back country for now.
Sunshine tomorrow. Too bad not tonight, as the full sonar eclipse will occur in less than an hour. Those clouds will be blocking it. Upper 50s, but it will feel warmer due to sunshine. Brisk NW winds continue, but back off through the day. Low 40s over night. Some protected pockets inland might drop into the 30s. Daytime highs in the 60s this week, building to 70F. Overnight lows rebound back in to the mid 40s. Pretty damn clear. Things are going to dry out.
Oh, yeah, that fun moon. King Tides. Huge tides tomorrow. Some of the biggest of the year. Watch out for coastal flooding during high tide. About 7 feet at 9:45AM. Sucking out all day to negative 1.5 feet at 4:30PM. Watch for currents and plan to tide pool in the evening.
Here in Santa Cruz, the light rain is back on. We are around .13 inches of rain for today. This is around what was forecast a few days ago. Over the last 48 hour the forecast was getting wetter and wetter. At one point I saw if climb to an inch of rain for today, and was almost that high early this morning. NWS is back down to calling for maybe another tenth inch tonight. Winds have already shifted NW, so that suggest the center of the storm is to our east, and we we see rain end shortly. Right now a solid band is hitting us, and precipitation rates are rising, but this may be the final band as the entire system moves onshore. Monday should be sunny, and mild. Then we go into a warming trend for the week. We could be hitting 70F by late in the work week. Right now it looks like we should peak out around Friday, but the dry weather is forecast to stick around through the end of the month. My math gives us at least ten days of sunshine. The plants are going to go wild.
The Sierra has up to two feet forecast at the crest for this storm. Kirkwood has been getting a lot less snow than the mountains around the north west of the lake. Kirkwood is reporting 42 inches from this last week, while Squaw has 74. That is a big difference. Northstar's 64 to Heavenly's 26. Still, I can attest the coverage at Kirkwood is excellent. I'd still say it is in the slightly low tide range, but much more of a mid tide. And more importantly, what is coverage is caked in snow. I imagine more resorts are in good shape. And if you ask me, this depth of snow is ideal. If we get too much, the mountains are really not quite as much fun as everything flattens out. Anyway, if you can get on it tomorrow, I imagine it will be good. Snow levels today started below 7800', and dropped all day. Currently they are around 6000 feet, so what is falling is all snow at all resorts. And up high it is fluff. Regardless of how this one produces, it will give the entire basin a great recoding, and came in right to bond with the firm surface below. Oh, and the persistent deep slab still exist in the backcountry. If you don't know what I'm talking about, stay out of the back country for now.
Sunshine tomorrow. Too bad not tonight, as the full sonar eclipse will occur in less than an hour. Those clouds will be blocking it. Upper 50s, but it will feel warmer due to sunshine. Brisk NW winds continue, but back off through the day. Low 40s over night. Some protected pockets inland might drop into the 30s. Daytime highs in the 60s this week, building to 70F. Overnight lows rebound back in to the mid 40s. Pretty damn clear. Things are going to dry out.
Oh, yeah, that fun moon. King Tides. Huge tides tomorrow. Some of the biggest of the year. Watch out for coastal flooding during high tide. About 7 feet at 9:45AM. Sucking out all day to negative 1.5 feet at 4:30PM. Watch for currents and plan to tide pool in the evening.
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