Monday, January 5, 2015

January Thaw

Well, I'm back.  I spent a few days up in the snow, and man was it cold and firm up there.  Still plenty of fun schussing, but for most it is groomers weather.  Kirkwood does have a bit of off piste that is edge-able though, especially in Sunrise Bowl.  This week looks best, with a warming trend going on right now.  For a moment there, it looked like we could get up to 70F this week, but the models are a bit more moderate this morning.  What is likely to be the case is a dry start to the year.  Not exactly what I was hoping to report, but there it is.  Continued mild and dry weather as far as the eye can see.  Today will be a touch warmer than yesterday with temps topping out in the mid 60s.  Overnight lows are chilly, dropping into the mid 40s.  Welcome to winter.

Still butterfly season.  Natural Bridges SB.

So you may be asking if that is really thaw weather.  As in, is it warm enough in the mountains to actually see some significant melting.  Well, yes.  Daytime highs at 8000 feet are expected to be in the low to mid 50s the first half of the week.  Southerly facing slopes will be seeing some melt up to about 9000 feet, with northerly facing slopes possibly staying frozen down to about 7000 feet.  Basically, though, with that kind of warmth, anything getting sun, with see some surface melt.  Not exactly great news for our water retention or ski slopes.  The warmest days of the week will be Tuesday and Wednesday.  Santa Cruz will be in the upper 60s.  By Thursday, though, we will enter a cooling trend, as a storm system moves through just to our north.  High pressure in place over us looks like it will have no problems deflecting that thing north, keeping us dry.  But cooler air does move in, with highs late in the week dropping back to the low 60s.  Cooling continues through the weekend, and we will struggle to get to 60F on Sunday.  But we stay dry.

Model runs about a week ago were suggesting rain this Thursday.  That has been pushed well north.  With that as a caveat, model runs over the past few days have suggested rain next Thursday and through MLK weekend.  A real wet one.  Keep checking back here for the latest.  I'm back from my little vacation, and will be posting up several days a week.  Pray for rain, and snow.  Even if you prefer these lovely sunrises we have been having, we sure do need the water.  Had a good start to the water year, but the last few weeks have not done much to help us out with the water issue.

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