Saturday, December 5, 2015

A brushing, then a busting.

Moderate chance for some light showers tomorrow as the current system coming ashore in the PNW brushes up against us.  Light accumulations are all that are expected locally.  As in measuring in hundredths of an inch.  And we see a continuation of this mild weather.  Clouds should clear by evening, and we might even see some sun to start the work week.  In fact, temps will warm back up into the mid 60s through Wednesday.  Could be several pleasant days before the train arrives.

Kind of missing those warm summer day we had in 2015.

The models have all been pumping up the Thursday system over the last 24 hours.  We will want to watch what the next 48 hours of runs bring before we start to call for heavy rain, but it certainly looks like we could be seeing some decent rain fall.  Timing currently looks like it should begin some time Thursday morning.  Another cold front will knock the temps down to the low 60s Thursday, and likely upper 50s on Friday.  Showery weather continues, and it looks like another system will be hot on its heels arriving sometime Saturday. There will barely be a day's break after that, if the models are right, with more storms arriving Wednesday and next Friday.  Of course we are getting out into the fantasy land there, but it is starting to look like an El Ni no fueled pattern with warmer storms coming in off the ocean.  Until that next Friday one.  That is looking like another Alaska system, as in bringing in more cold air.  Likely not as cold as the one that arrive just before Thanksgiving.  But hard to tell at this point.  Get ready for some rain.

But for now, enjoy the mild weather and solid surf.  Surf has been subsiding since yesterday, but another large pulse of surf is expected to arrive Sunday evening.  This one looks even bigger than the last and we could be seeing some ten foot at seventeen second period swell.  That is Mavs big, and that break will probably be pushing some 25 footers Monday morning.  West Cliff will be well OH, with plenty of DOH surf.  Even bigger at Middle Peak.  Even the east side of town will be seeing some real size with this one.  And there is more out the back, arriving on Wednesday, but by Thursday surface conditions will take a big hit.  So get it while it is good.  And stay tuned.  Storms are just around the corner.

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