Drought.

Droughts are hard to break.  The represent several seasons of lower than average rain and snow fall.  The one we are currently in is quite exceptional, and we are far from seeing any significant dents in it.  The good news is that we have seen slight improvements since the start of the water year.  The bad news is that we have only seen slight improvements since the start of the water year.  99.86 percent of the state is in drought, but (looking for a silver lining) we have seen a drop of over 10% for regions effected by what is called Exceptional Drought, or D4, as compared to one year ago.  So, at least we are slowly moving in a the right direction.  What is interesting is that so far this year most of the excess water has fallen south of us.  That is due mostly to the odd tropical incursions into SoCal we saw during the summer.  NorCal has seen less than normal amounts of water so far tis water year.  Hopefully all that is about to change as we see a number of systems lining up that should effect the state to our north.  In the meantime, we are getting ready for some rain to arrive later this week in Santa Cruz.

Surf is up.  Get out there and enjoy.  Respect the ocean, and use caution.  Swift Street.

Not a whole lot of change in the forecast.  Models are shifting all over the place.  Confidence is high that we will receive rain on Thursday.  Confidence is low regarding timing and amounts.  Rain is likely mid day Thursday.  Possible as early as Wednesday evening and into Friday morning.  Amounts range from .1 to one inch.  So a lot of variables.  Hopefully we can see the models agree on a solution by tomorrow, so we can update the forecast.

Swell is pumping out there right now.  A moderate long period swell is providing overhead surf for West Cliff, and DOH to DOH plus surf at locations west and north of town.  A light east wind is keeping the swell very clean.  This is a solid, powerful swell.  If it is beyond your skill set, please play it safe, and stay ashore.  On the other hand, if if you like solid waves, get out there and get some.  The water is warmer than the air right now, do don't be dissuaded by the cold.  Things will begin to settle down a bit today, but conditions remain epic through mid day Wednesday.  Don't wait until Thursday, though, as the approaching front will add a lot of junk and multiple swells to the water.  New swell and improving conditions for Friday and into the weekend.  Get some.