Monday, December 7, 2015

Gravy Train.

We are now less than three days out until the beginning of a series of storms like we have not seen in years.  Depending on how you look at things, with just a little bit of luck, we will be very wet around these parts through the end of the year.  If memory serves me right, December of 2012 was pretty wet.  Too bad the rest of the year was not.  But let's take a look at the next week.  Tuesday looks great.  Similiar to today.  A fine autumn day.  Mid 60s with some sunshine.  It will feel nice when the sun is out.  Upper 40s for morning lows the next few days.  Right now it looks like rain will push south into Marin County late on Wednesday, waiting until the early morning hours to push through Santa Cruz.  And it should stick around through the bulk of the day.  Commutes are likely not going to be fun on Thursday.  Colder air arrives with the storm.  Low 60s.

This zone may be filled nicely come next Tuesday.

Currently the outlooks if for some sporadic lingering showers on Friday.  Cloud cover will the morning from getting too cold.  Mid 40s, warming only into the upper 50s.  But dry through the mid to later part of the day.  So, that is round one.  As of today's GFS, a wave pushes through Saturday, during the day, bringing more light rain.  And then we see a break in the evening through the middle of the day Sunday, when an even colder storm dives down from the north.  Current models runs have this one just far enough west to pick up copious amounts of moisture, and we could see moderate to heavy rain late Sunday and into Monday morning.  Another bummer commute time.  Showers could linger through Tuesday, or Wednesday even.  With another cold storm trying to line us up for the following Friday.  And another on the 23rd.  So, yeah, a gravy train.

Nothing is for certain yet.  Big surf again on Tuesday.  Still plenty of size left for Wednesday.  Rain for Thursday.  Maybe a break Friday.  Rain Saturday.  About an inch here in town by then.  Another half inch coming Sunday night.  Two inches plus in the local mountains.  Four to six inches (which is just about that many feet of snow) along part of the Sierra Crest.  Perhaps ten inches or more in the bullseye in Del Norte County.  Best looking water outlook we have seen in a while.  Not just based on those numbers, but the look of things to come.  El Nino is trying to bust down the down.  Let us wish him luck.

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