Wednesday, December 2, 2015


The storm tomorrow will not stick around long.  There is still some vacillating of the models, shifting the bulk of the rain back and forth between the coast and the Sierra.  Kind of warmish out there today, but with increased cloud cover, it sure feels mild.  A warmish night, with the lows hanging in the mid to upper 40s.   Thursday will feel chilly though, and see little warming.  Rain is likely, with the greatest chance in the afternoon.  It is also likely that the rain will be moderate, but brief.  The bulk of this system will be to our north and, to a certain degree, to our east.  Heaviest rains expected on the west slope and foothills of the Sierra.  NOAA has a winter snow warning up, with accumulations up to 15 inches at pass level.  Back to us in Santa Cruz, the rain is likely to be over by evening.  The commute will definitely have wet roads, but you may not need worry about driving in the rain.  Certainly it will clear up over night, with the clouds clearing out through Wednesday morning.  And we return to placid, crisp weather.

Currently it looks like the storm arriving next Monday will be deflected north.  There has been some talk by a few forecasters about the RRR (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge*) re-affirming itself, but I think that is just hogwash.  Yes, there is a ridge, but it sure ain't the RRR.  First, things are actually breaking through this one.  Second, it is set up well east of the RRR, and actually centered over land.  Third, that is not at all unusual for this part of the season.  It is barely December.  Even in big winters, it is not uncommon for the first rain/snow to hold off until now.  But, whatever, it does block the system arriving to start next week.  But not so much the one that is expected to arrive late next week.

Until then, Thursday looks stormy, but from Friday through the middle of next week, it looks mild.  Friday and Saturday morning will see lows in the low 40s, but that rises to upper 40s by the start of the work week.  Afternoon highs bounce around the low to mid 60s.  Another chance of rain next Thursday.  And a slight chance on Monday.

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