Thursday, December 17, 2015

Wet Train A Coming.

The engine arrives late on Friday.  The next few days will be cool and fair.  Cold in the mornings.  It was below 35F for almost four and half hours this morning.  That is cold.  A few clouds tomorrow.  Not really any chance of rain here in town.  Maybe the best slope in the Santa Cruz Mountains will see a sprinkle or two.  A little warmer tomorrow.  Upper 50s, compared to today's mid 50s.  Finally feeling like a real winter around here.  Friday may warm up to 60F, but clouds will be filling in earnest by mid afternoon.  And then there will be rain.

It is finally starting to look like winter for the first time in four years.  Looking from Kirkwood to Round Top.

----Okay, so I started this post yesterday.  It is a degree warmer out there this morning.  35.4F.  Toasty, eh?  A warm front arrives today so we could be climbing into the 60s the next two days.  Yay!  And tomorrow morning won't be as cold.  Likely staying in the low 40s.  This morning it looks like rain will arrive overnight on Friday with the heaviest precipitation occurring from about 5AM through 10AM Saturday morning.  Not a whole lot.  Perhaps a third of an inch, with some more in the local mountains and along the Big Sur Coast.  Perhaps a half foot of snow for the Sierra.  The small system will bring a cold front, cooling things back off.  But the series of systems coming our way keeps us under some cloud cover, and nights will not be as cold.  Sunday should see some sun, and likely will be a gorgeous day.

The coming atmospheric river is slated to hit the coast on Monday.  The forecast for the Jet Stream is all over the place.  At times directly over us, at other directly over Vancouver.  That is quite a swing.  The further south it aims, the more rain we will see, and the cold the air.  But ultimately this is looking like a warm event.  We could begin to see more rain as early as Monday.  The models this morning, suggest that the bulk of this round is going to stay north of us, and then slowly shift south through Wednesday.  Increasing chances of rain through then.  I will tighten this forecast up, as models start to show agreement.  Where there is agreement is in the shaky ground one week out territory.  A cold wet storm is forecast to dive south on next Thursday and last through Friday.  The QPF for this system is looking impressive, with several inches falling along the coast.  We have not yet seen a super wet system, so this may be the one.  Nothing but practice rounds so far.  in fact, we may be looking at an extended rainy period taking us into the new year.  Hope your ready.

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