Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Gone North.

The AR has shot north and should impact the NorCal coast through mid day.  We could see a sprinkle down here during the daylight hours, but forecast is for less than 2/100", so that is pretty slim.  Low 50s as of 9:30AM.  There is some mild air today, but with the full cloud cover this morning, it does not look like we will get out of the 50s today.  There was a break earlier, and the sun shone through, and it was awesome.  But that has passed.  The ocean is calm today with small swell, and light southerly winds.  Great light out there for taking pics.  Hoping to resume that soon.  As for the weather, rain will fill in tonight, but only lightly.

AR tend to be long and narrow.  Unlike a cyclonic storm, they focus a lot of precipitation along a very narrow path.  This one being aimed centered at about Point Arena, will only bring us light rain tonight.  About a tenth of an inch.  And it will be done by mid morning.  Yet clouds remain, and a second system begins to take shape off the coast late Wednesday.  This one is cyclonic, and will pick up the moisture offshore from the AR, before moving ashore and wetting most of the state.  Unlike ARs, cyclonic storms tend to be robust and wide spread with over all lighter precipitation effecting a greater area.  But, with you pick up all that moisture contained in the AR before moving ashore, you tend to pack a greater punch.

Late Wednesday night, into Thursday, we will see a decent does of rain.  Will need to fine tune, but it looks light through the morning hours and turning on mid day, and staying on past dark.  We could see two inches over the period.  Adding not much from earlier in the week, that is a much smaller total that the 4 or 5 is was seeing on earlier forecasts.  This is mainly because that narrow AR moved from being centered on Half Moon Bay, to Point Arena.  Had it stayed closer, we would be getting drenched in just a few short hours.  Instead, we have a a few mild days to enjoy being outdoors.

Clearing on Friday, with a crisp sunny weekend on tap.

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