This morning, the AR is pointed further to our north. This will mean lighter precipitation through the first half of the week. Due to the flips and flops, I won't go in to it much further than right than to say expect later arrival of lighter rain with warmer temps. I'll put more detail into it tomorrow morning, after the 6AM model runs. The good news is we may see more semi clear weather going into Thursday morning, as opposed to a regular showery condition.
Things are looking good with our water year. We should be close to 50% of annual average by the end of this week. At the end of November, we were already at 25%. Locally, we are year to date about 150% of average. The NOAA climate center was forecasting a drier than average Dec-Feb. We are not yet two weeks in to that 13 week period yet, but it sure does feel like a good start. If NOAA is correct, we should expect so much drier periods coming soon. Yet, the operational models has more possible storms 10 and 14 days out. While those are the fantasy charts, it does indicate a greater chance for that outcome than a blocking high.
More details on this week tomorrow morning.