Saturday, February 15, 2014

Everything is trending dryer.

I guess for some folks, that is a nice sounding headline.  Me?  I want some more rain.  We very much need it.  Looks like we will still get some, but as of this morning, it looks like a few sprinkles.  Not that it is all sunshine and bliss out there.  Pretty grey in fact.  And it does look like we will work our way out of that today.  It even feels like rain out there.  We are still on track for the first round of rain later tonight.  Not a whole bunch.  Maybe a quarter of an inch in the best location in the coastal mountains.  More like a drizzle here in town.  Half a foot in the Sierra atop the crest.  Some runs have a bit more falling up there, but they still all look well shy of a foot.  A nice refresh.  That is a bout it.  Cooler air fills in with this system.

The mid week storm looks less and less likely to give us much more than a bout of light rain Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.  The Thursday system will miss us and be guided north according to this morning's GFS run.  Not a whole bunch of hope out there for any significant rain, let alone moderate amounts.  There is something out on the fantasy charts for the end of the month, but I'm not counting on that sticking around for more than a few runs of the forecast.  Looks like we are back to the old, "there looks to be a storm about 10 days or so out," that soon is off the charts with a new 10 day wet solution teasing us.  In the mean time, this week is going to remain active just to our north, so the PNW is getting some goods.

Surf, on the other hand, is slowly get shaped back up.  Local conditions will keep us well out of the epic category, but we are seeing an increase in mid period swells, with some chances of bigger and longer period swells for the mid term.  Hell, we might even get that high set up upon us again.  Mind as well.  If it is not going to rain, let it be a beach day.  On another note, I will be traveling much of next week, so updates may be a few days apart.  I'll try to drop in, take a look at things, and let you know what is on the books.  Still chances for showers twice next week.  Any big change, I'll let you know.  And I keep an eye on month's end, just in case we start getting lucky.

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