Thursday, February 27, 2014

Next system has sped up. Mid term the models still diverge.

Get out there this morning and enjoy a break in the rain.  Put on some stomping boots and hit the puddles.  They are going off right now.  The surf, on the other hand, is about as stormy, and dirty, as it gets here in town.  Next system upstream is now forecast to arrive by evening.  It could even be raining by afternoon.  This one is a whopper, and will directly impact SoCal.  While we will be on the northern fringe, we are still looking to get well over an inch from this system.  The big news, though, is the strong winds forecast for Friday.  Town could easily see 40 MPH gusts, with stronger winds over the open water and in the local hills.  The Sierra got about a foot of snow last night, and will get another foot this evening.  Along the crest, totals could exceed three feet by the time the precip wraps up mid Saturday.  Here in town you may want to prepare for power outages for the start of the weekend, as power lines and trees are likely to fall over the next 48 hours.  Good times.

More swan.

We should see clearing through the morning on Saturday, and the weekend looks pleasant, if cool.  Low to mid 60s with some breezes and clouds.  Here is where things are getting hard to get a handle on.  The GFS keeps most of the next series of systems to our north as high pressure noses in.  The Canadian and Euro, on the other hand, push more moisture over us.  It has been this way for several days now.  Basically, we still have a chance for lighter showery weather from Monday through Thursday.  All models are in agreement about the high pressure more fully developing by next weekend.  Could be a good time for an easy drive up to the mountains to enjoy all the new snow.

So in short, a strong, windy and wet storm will move in later today and into this evening, lasting through early Saturday morning.  Fair, cool, partly cloudy weather this weekend, with a chance of lighter rain through next work week.  Clearing and decent warming for next weekend.  And the long term fantasy models are suggesting more storm after that.  Good news for the water year, as we start to make some dents.  We will take a look at the drought situation after the weekend.  Now go stomping.

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