Waffles for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

It has been tough watching the forecast model runs.  It seems like the set up for the next week keeps on waffling with every six hour run.  So, really, it is a guessing game at this point.  So, I thought I'd play.  So here is my guess.  High cloud cover was thicker than expected today.  That north west breeze was cool, and it never really felt all that warm today.  Cold air is in place.  Cold tonight.  If you are up in the hills a bit, say Felton and the such, you could see temperatures dipping down to freezing, and a bit of frost in the morning.  Wednesday will stay in the 50s, although it may be a bit warmer that the past two days with the impending storm pull warm air in underneath it.  Clouds are likely.  Showers will start impacting the northern coast around night fall.  Rain moves into Santa Cruz overnight.  Cloud cover keeps overnight lows in the 40s.

Red Cliffs on MLK Day.  Almost looks November.  That is all changing.

Right now it looks like the heaviest precipitation will fall Thursday midday.  About an half inch in the Santa Lucia based on the most current run.  A bit less here, as the mountains help shadow us from this one.  Now, with that said, these models waffle every one.  The 0z run for tomorrow could show something different.  But that is the gist of it.  Clearing overnight Thursday, with Friday being our best bet at sunshine.  Still hanging out in the mid 50s.  Friday night will be another chilly one with the clear sky.  Another system will be hot on the tails of Thursday's, with an atmospheric river setting up to hit the west coast.  The exact location, hell, even the general location of this AR is proving hard for the models to get a grasp on.  It will hit somewhere between Washington State, and San Francisco.  Most likely it will be slightly north of us.  Lassen will get plastered with six or more feet of snow.  Maybe.

Anyway, expect Saturday to break chilly, with some clouds.  Clouds increase during the day, and rain to begin in the evening.  It could be quite heavy at times.  Again, the most current run has the hose aimed at the Mendocino coast with three plus inches forecast for the system.  If that is what happens, we will see moderate showers through the day Sunday, with warmer air temperature.  Perhaps as warm as the low 60s.  Overnight lows rise back into the mid 40s.  Currently, the heaviest rainfall is expected Sunday night.  Rain likely continuing Monday morning during the commute, and letting up during the day.  Currently it looks like sun returns for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a high in the mid 60s.  Maybe more rain for Thursday.  But more on that later.  Right now we will be focusing on the potential three day rain event this week.

Still a whole bunch of 'if' in this forecast.  If the AR shifts a few hundred miles north, we will likely see light showers, or even no showers, and fairly warm (mid to upper 60s) air.  If the AR shifts a few hundred miles south, we will be cooler (upper 50s) and very wet.  Like in several inches of rain fall wet.  Right now, we are right in the middle, and should expect about an inch of rain from this event.  The good news is it currently looks like northern portions of the state will received a bunch of water.  But, of course, we still need a whole bunch more.

Quick view.  Cloudy and cool Wednesday.  Cold rain Thursday.  Cool, and some clouds on Friday.  Warmer on Saturday, but more clouds. Rain likely later in the day.  Even warmer on Sunday, with rain showers.  Rain to start the day Monday, but with some clearing.  Tuesday and Wednesday are warmer with decent sun.  But, we are in a very dynamic pattern right now, and will continue for the next few weeks.