Don't put away that rain coat.

A nice break happening right now, and it seems like the heaviest sustained rain is over for us here in Santa Cruz, as this systems took a good dive to the south this morning.  But it is not over yet.  A pretty strong looking cell is just a bit to the west of us.  Depending on its rotation, it could give us a good hit of rain in a few hours.  In fact, broken chances of rain continue through mid morning tomorrow.  And in some sense, they don't really go away.  But first, it fell pretty heavy here on the west side in the early morning hours.  We had a little erosion in the yard.  Just a touch, but what makes it significant, is the zone has pretty good drainage and still got swamped for a few hours.  Anyway, let's look at the rest of today and the coming weekend.

If you need a warm up, here is Punta de Mita, Nayarit, Mexico.

While the heaviest rains have likely passed, we could see a few more chances for heavier showers today.  But there will be breaks in the actions.  These breaks will become more pronounced by evening, but chances of passing showers continue through Saturday morning.  By afternoon, we could see blue parts in the sky, but parts of this storm may linger along the coast and in the Sierra through Sunday morning, providing at the very least, some cloud cover.  Winds subside today and over night.  Flooding chances decrease and the earth begins to absorb and move some of this water.  While we hang in the mid 50s today, the weekend could warm up to 60F.  Sunday, with the greater chance of sun, could be quite nice.  But carry some rain gear with you, as we are definitely not out in the clear.

Models still diverge for the coming week.  Chance of rain, greatest on Monday and Wednesday evenings.  I'll try to firm this up more soon, but it will be partly sunny, with chance of showers, and slight chance of heavier rain, and mild, through the week.  A new 20 inches or so of medium density snow has fallen in the Sierra.  Storms up there today will keep most terrain closed.  Saturday could be a great powder day.  With this storm moving quickly, a drive up in the morning might not be pure hell.  Tonight will be a rough one, especially with the traffic.  Be safe.  I'll try to tour around a bit on Sunday, conditions permitting, and report back.  And even if you plan to ski in the resort, if you have them, wear your avi gear.  Danger will be high.  Be prepared and stay safe.  More later.