Tuesday, January 28, 2014

A decent forecast, I'd say...

Locally, we are going to get a little rain.  A bit more than showers, but not quite a dumping on.  Regionally, we are going to get a whole bunch more.  Not enough to knock out the drought, but enough to put some snow pack on the ground and green up the hills.  A bit.  For a short while, at least.  Here is how the next few days look to play out.  Wednesday will be fair in Santa Cruz, with some lingering fog layer in the mornings, clearing quickly to mostly cloudy.  Kind of like the past few days.  Mid 60s.  North west breezes usher cooler in air late in the day as a cold front makes its way south.  Rain for Marin by afternoon, as the first plume of moisture moves ashore just to our north.  Showers move south overnight.  Tahoe could get hit with a wet bomb, dropping  good foot overnight.  Snow levels start off high, then drop through Thursday.  Cool, but not cold, here Wednesday night in the upper 40s.

Ah, the dog days of winter are behind us.  For now.  Lighthouse Field, Santa Cruz.

Rain moves in through the day Thursday.  The local mountains good get a half inch of rain, but town will be shadowed pretty nicely from this event.  A tenth or two is expected here in Santa Cruz.  Barely enough to wet the ground.  Don't get me wrong.  A slight shift in the axis, and we could push an inch.  There is plenty of water with this thing.  Just not aimed at us.  Mostly aimed on the coast north of SF, but even more so on the Sierra.  The crest near Lake Tahoe could get 18-30 inches of new, wet, base building snow.  This is good for skiers, and it is good for water retention.  We need way more than that for both good recreation and drought abatement, but we will take every drop we can get.  If you are chasing the powder day on Friday, please be real careful out there.  Just under that two foot of fresh is granite and pine.  Snow snakes waiting to cause some serious injury.  Speaking of caution, we lost someone to the ocean the other day here in town.  Our hearts go out to the family and those who tried to save him.  Very sad.  And please be very careful out there, especially when the surf becomes a bit mean.

Friday things begin to clear down here on the coast, but the air will remain cool.  Thursday through Sunday the temperatures will not likely reach into the 60s, but it should be mostly sunny by Friday.  Overnight lows drop down below 40F Friday, and by Tuesday night we have a chance of frost.  More on that as we get closer.  There is a very slight chance for showers Sunday evening, as the next system upstream falls apart just off shore and scrapes by on its way south.  After that some models have the high pressure building back in with cold air in place, while others have us wet again by the end of next week.  Time will tell.

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