Thursday, January 9, 2014

Everyone knows it never rains in California.

My childhood impressions of the state are finally taken fruition.  I grew up in the North East, where it is hot and humid in the summer, and cold and blistery in the winter, and precipitation falls year round.  When I thought of California, I thought of sunshine and beach weather.  Seems like I was right.  Right?  At least for now that seems the case.  This week's stormy weather is really not all that stormy.  Just a bit cooler and breezier than it has been.  Let's take a look at the coming weekend, next week, and the possible change in patterns to come some time around MLK Day.

More persimmons.  More great weather.  But, please send us some rain.

Cool, meaning low 60s, daytime weather continues through this week and into the weekend.  Over night lows continue to drop into the upper 30s.  Friday should have a partly cloudy sky, as well as Saturday.  Rain showers look to approach as far south as Marin County.  Chances look pretty slim in Santa Cruz for any measurable precipitation.  It might feel a bit like Wednesday with fog/clouds and a moment or two of drizzle.  Onshore winds are strongest today, and we will see morning offshores setting up as early as Friday.  Sunday looks a bit clearer, and temperatures begin to climb up through the 50s.

For next week, we see some robust high pressure setting up upon us again, driving daytime highs into the low 70s.  The best days next week, in the best locations in town, could see us top out at 75F.  If you are hoping for some perfect outdoor weather, the period between this Sunday and next Sunday is your best bet.  Epic weather is looking to grace us again.  Surf is on its way back up as well.  Nothing like the two weeks of holiday swell, but definitely something winter like with wave heights building to a peak of double overhead for the open coastline on Sunday.  The steep northerly angle of this one will keep things much smaller in town.  Still, it looks like we are on a run of shoulder high and bigger surf for the next six days.  And maybe longer.  Next Monday and Tuesday will be prime days with moderate surf, offshore winds and fantastic weather.

Now the fantasy forecast.  I'll keep it brief, and emphasize the 'maybe' aspect of this report.  The GFS has for several runs now become more progressive with the high pressure that seems to have been around for an entire year, to begin weakening around Friday, January 17th.  Large low pressure takes control of the eastern Gulf of Alaska, and begins to approach the coastline, pushing south into California around MLK Day, and setting us up for a decent period or rain starting Tuesday, January 21st.  If the models are correct, this will be the strongest storm we have seen since 2012.  If.  We still have 8 days until this pattern change and 12 until the rain, and the models have performed very poorly the last year or two in this time range... but, if you are like me, and have extended any outdoor projects into this winter that could be adversely affected by lots of water, you will want to keep an eye on this system.  I for sure will be reporting back here within a few days to see how the GFS and other models play this thing out as we get closer.  Check back for updates, but for now, enjoy the good weather, and plan for some epicness next week.

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