Sunday, January 26, 2014

Confidence builds for a wet end to the week.

Chillier today.  It was still splendid, but not quite what we have been getting.  And this afternoon, I watched as the marine layer developed and began moving near shore.  By night fall it was right along west cliff.  Could make for a damp morning.  Regardless, we have an interesting week ahead of us.  Fog clears by mid morning on Monday.  Maybe earlier.  Some clouds, and a moderate northwest breeze by afternoon.  High of 65F.  The marine layer should be kept from developing with a little help from that wind.  Overnight lows also start to climb due to the cloud cover.  Monday night should stay in the mid 40s.  Tuesday climbs back to the mid 60s.  Not much of a difference for Wednesday, but by evening things will start looking a bit different.

Kirkwood could sure use some snow.  Fingers crossed.

I'm thinking that we will need to wait till night fall on Thursday for rain, but occasional model runs have suggested a little showery weather as early as Wednesday night.  To be honest, I'm still feeling reluctant to call the rain.  They way this past year has been going, I am still expecting some last minute big play by the high pressure that will push moisture in some other direction.  But the models have been in agreement now for several days.  The latest run of the GFS has pulled back a bit on the moisture plume, but we could be looking at an inch or so on the coast, and two to several in the Sierra.  How will it all play out.  Not sure, but I can give insight into what I have been seeing.

Clouds develop late Wednesday and further on Thursday.  This is basically a warm storm, so highs on Thursday be in the low 60s.  Some areas, may see showers in the morning.  Wide spread rain develops after mid day.  Maybe as early as the commute.  This thing is coming from the WNW, so we will not see rain developing in the north and moving south, but pretty much coming right off the ocean.  Thursday night should be wet, as will be Friday morning.  Then partial clearing, as subsequent waves try to wrap on shore.  This will keep us with a chance of rain through Saturday evening, but as of now it looks that the dew point will be low enough to only squeeze out a little high mountain snow.  So, we could be dry from mid Friday through the weekend.  I'll post back up here over the next few days and let the models run a few more times.  Bottom line is it looks like we will get at least a little rain, and maybe some moderate rain, around the coming Thursday. Holy geez.  As of now, the following week looks dry with the high pressure rebounding.  As if we could not see that coming.  Come on, Ma Nature, get creative.

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