Monday, April 14, 2014

Just when you're about to throw in the towel.

Some people gave up on winter way back in January.  Or February.  Silly folk.  They just needed to wait till March.  Well, after a nice first day of April, things looked like they had dried up.  Hell, my back yard is already bone dry and cracked.  That did not take long.  And it sure feels like summer has set in with highs pushing past eighty in the central valley.  Still plenty warm here in Santa Cruz when I pulled in at 6PM.  And that whole fog thing in the mornings.  Looks like that will continue for some time, but at least that April sun, when it does come out, is nice and warm.  Too bad the fog will block the blood moon tonight.  Kind of wish I was still up in the mountains.  Bet it will be stellar to look at from elevation.  Anyway, about that towel.

Tidal stones.  4 Mile Beach.  Santa Cruz.

Not much change over the coming days.  Some weather pushing through into the PNW around Thursday will try to push the high pressure south, into a more winter time position.  But it looks like it will pretty much fall at that, so summer time fog continues.  At least the air mass is fairly warm allowing us into the seventies during the day.  The week continues will fog till noon, give or take.  Onshore breezes.  Mild, to warm afternoons and evenings.  Lunar eclipse tonight, just in case you don't know.  Peaks from about 3 to 4 AM.  When I drove east on Sunday morning, the marine layer reached all the way to Altamont Pass, so basically you might need to be in the central valley to see this thing.  Pretty sure you won't be seeing it here in town.  The moon rise was obscured at around 7:30 PM tonight.  Anyway, I digress.

Oh, that towel.  What is interesting is this mornings GFS forecast for this coming weekend and next week.  It would suggest the high pressure moves into a more winter time position, or on top of us, by this weekend.  That would kill the fog machine and allow morning offshore breezes.  And we could be seeing some decent combo swell with dying wind swell, developing mid period NW and longer period WNW, and even some long period S.  None of them alone looks like much, but added together, and it could be fun this coming weekend.  And maybe no fog.  That is if the high gets pushed directly upon us.  And there is more.  Around next Tuesday, low pressure could displace the high pressure and bring us more rain.  Now, we are talking low confidence, but more is projected over Easter Weekend.  If this plays out, it could only benefit us.

I drove by the San Luis Reservoir near Hollister on Saturday.  Now, it has been years since I was there, but the water looked way low.  Turns out it is at 46% percent of capacity.   In an average year it is usually at 91% of capacity at this date.  Not a high year, just average.  Way low.  In fact, that is pretty much how most of the major reservoirs look this year.  Fingers crossed for inclement weather.   I'd rather weather some more rain storms than sit in the fog.

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