Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Warm Wednesday? Rainy Tuesday?

Good news is that the fog may not fill in as much overnight.  That would make for a warm humpday.  Something like 75F tomorrow.  Not hot, but hey, it is April.  While the onshores tend to be lightning through the rest of the week, it does look like fog will return Thursday, as the high pressure and low pressure begin to battle.  The PNW has a good plume of moisture headed its way, with light showers extending into Northern California.  Little relief.  By the weekend, we could see the gradient shift well to our north setting the high directly upon us.    The NWS still calls for fog and moderate on shores, but the GFS suggest different.  That solution would be nice.  I am still hopeful for a nice weekend ahead.  But be prepared for more marine layer as well.  I'll keep an eye on this.  Less fog means more warmth.  But then things get interesting maybe next week.

At low tides the reef becomes exposed and ripe for exploration.  4 Mile Beach. 

Another trough is headed toward BC next Sunday.  That thing could send swell our way, and if the high pressure sets up like I hope, conditions could be nice.  That late weekend storm energy gets picked up by a following low pressure that may displace this bubble and slide inside it.  Current 7 day model runs suggest this battle splits the storm, sending some of it toward Tahoe and the rest toward SoCal on late Monday and into Tuesday morning.  What is so interesting is the moisture feed keeps moderate precipitation over the southern Sierra and much of the southern portion of the state into Wednesday.  Little confidence right now in this solution, although it has persisted in the GFS runs for the past 56 hours.  So there is that.  Also suggested is another bout of precipitation over Easter weekend.  Could be April going out like a lion.  More on this whole scenario as we get closer.  Don;t be surprised if it ends up being a totally dry week.

In short, tomorrow looks promising, as does this weekend.  Maybe more rain as early as next Monday night.  Keep in tune.  Our season may yet to be over.

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