Friday, January 29, 2016

Basically on track.

Drizzle showed up early this morning.  I heard one adult claim it is just fog.  The kid near by and set them straight.  It was drizzle.  It accumulated.  We are just over a tenth of an inch on the west side, nearly a quarter of an inch at Fall Creek, and over a third of an inch on the Sierra west slope.  In fact, they are expecting some heavy precipitation up there, with snow levels above 8000 feet right now.  Those will lower to lake level overnight.  About a foot of snow or so at the higher elevations.  A few inches down at the lake.  Just some light drizzle down here on the coast.  Again, that looks to let up by tomorrow morning.   We still need to consider that we will continue to see high humidity, and with the onshore breeze, we could see some more drizzle during the day.  Lows overnight around 50F.  Highs on Saturday about 60F.

King Tides at 3 Mile, January 2015.

Colder air moves in tomorrow though, and we see increased chances of showers by Saturday evening, and into Sunday morning.  A low of 45F.  A high of 55F on Sunday.  So cooler.  This second wave is going to mainly hit to our south on Sunday afternoon.  If that tracks further north, we could see some moderate rain on Sunday.  Likely, we will accumulate less than a quarter inch from noon Saturday through Monday morning.  What will be dramatic is the winds filling in behind the storm on Monday,  High pressure is setting up shop, and will try to re-enforce itself.  That drives brisk northwest winds.  Just like after a spring storm.  And while there is a short wave likely to break through a bit on Tuesday evening, this high pressure otherwise looks to set up for a solid ten day stretch of sunshine.  Time to think about heading out on some of those bigger hikes.  Either to waterfalls or alpine lines.

Tahoe should fair well this weekend.  Lots of rain hitting things right now.  But there will be snow down to all elevations by Saturday morning.  Good base building snow.  It would be nicer to get fluff.  Winds might also be an issue at higher elevations where the lighter snow awaits.  The Sunday storm looks colder, and Monday may be the day.  Next week looks very nice, with perhaps some clouds and light snow showers to preserve the surface.  Things are setting up pretty nicely for the President's week holiday.

EDIT:  Two things.  Raining now at 8:45.  Almost up to a quarter inch.  Looks like we will exceed forecast tonight.  Oh, and I almost forgot to tell you.  West Cliff fell sidewalk fell into the ocean just east of Woodrow.  Insane.  A new blow hole coming up through the sidewalk.  The city employee said at the higher morning tide, with more swell, he could here the boulders bellow tumbling around like marbles.  Holy mother nature el nino batman.  Anyway, pretty cool power of nature stuff.

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