Sunday, January 10, 2016

The Fallen, the Falling and the yet to come.

The system that came ashore yesterday did a terrible time of keeping itself together.  A couple hundreths of an inch of rain here in town, a touch more in the hills and not too much at all in the interior.  Oddly, it drizzled at 7800' yesterday, even though it was 26F out.  As was pointed out by gimpy, it is the K Factor.  The wave passing through tonight will fall apart just the same, with very little measurable precip, if any at all.  Best chances are in the morning hours, but light rain hangs out just off shore through the day.  55F already this morning.  That sun feels nice.  More of the same through Tuesday.  Then we see the next system upstream moving ashore.  The GFS has been a bit bullish, with a second, colder wave sweeping in from the north for a quick hit Thursday afternoon, and a decent sized storm for Saturday.  As these two systems that book end today looked stronger a few days ago on the models, not a lot of confidence is created with the models recently.  Certainly something to monitor.  Now, though, is time for me to go out for a surf.  Looks good, with the dropping tide, a fresh swell and easterly flow.

In short, chance of rain this evening and Monday morning is slight.  Mild temps prevail with upper 40s at night and upper 50s during the day, with some slight variations.  If GFS solution pans out, we could see some slightly colder air coming in with the system Thursday.  Best to plan for a raining Wednesday at this point, but check back for more updates tomorrow.

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