Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Sunday could be sunny...

Clouds are already filling in.  The storm arriving tonight looked good in profile this morning, with a plarge plume of moisture streaming across the Pacific.  Radar in the PNW is picking up wide swath of rain already moving ashore.  Rain will move down the coast quickly tonight, with strong southerly winds building past sunset.  Surf will go to crap tomorrow, unless you are in the extreme know, and have a place in mind that can handle these winds, lovers.  Swell is already dropping, so there is that.  Wednesday looks like a rainy day.  It should arrive tonight, so expect a wet morning commute tomorrow.  This storm is looking a little wetter, although a lot of forecasts bumped precip totals way up, then pulled them back down mid day today.  Half to three quarters inch in town would not be a surprise.  More in the hills of course.  Nearly a foot of snow for the Sierra above lake level.

There still looks like there should be a break Wednesday evening, into Thursday morning, but round two comes in late morning Thursday.  It will bring colder air.  Expect a half inch of rain to move through during the daylight hours.  More snow for the Sierra.  Rain will probably be gone by the Friday morning commute.  It will be crisp.  There does not look to be enough of a break to get more than just a small bit of sun Friday, but it could warm back up to the upper 50s. Call it mostly cloudy and mild.  We are still watching for round 3 on Friday evening.  This one is actually mellowing on the models.  Go figure.  Still, we should be thinking of a quarter inch or more new water on Saturday.  And think of Saturday as a rainy day.  But here is just where things start.

That storm Saturday will weaken as it encounters the ridge, just as every storm has for the last few weeks.  The difference, is that it is starting to look like it will displace the ridge.  That would make the following wave arrive quicker and stronger.  It did look like things should stay clear through next Monday (MLK Day), but now it is starting to look like the next storm up stream will drive ashore on Sunday afternoon, and fill in solidly on Monday, with even more of a moisture tap on Tuesday.  If you have any work that needs to be stabilized, then ya might want to get stabilized.  The hose might turn on next week.  Oh, and expect high snow levels and flooding.  Hopefully we can capture some of this rain before it runs off shore.

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