Saturday, January 2, 2016

Game On 2016.

2016 is about to bring it.  Look at that sky.  This storm is getting close and will soon over ride the area.  The storm is still expected to break apart as it hits the displacing high pressure, but a more westerly track is looking to bring rain to our area on Sunday.  GFS has come in line today.  Confidence high for a wet day on Sunday.  We could even see rain filling in before day break.  This first round is on the lighter side, but just off shore decent totals are expected.  That could mean an inch or more in the local mountains.  It looks like the most continuous, and heaviest showers will occur in the afternoon and into the evening on Sunday.  It will remain cool.  My fantasy of 60F temps is being crushed as warm air never really gets a chance to fill in ahead of this thing.  And even though it is under cutting the Rex Block, it is coming in fairly cold.  Evenings are going to warm up a bit, into the low 40s after tonight.  As for the rain, it should subside earlier in the day on Monday.  We could still she showery weather, but it is likely to break up a bit into the afternoon hours.  Don't worry though, as another system is going to arrive on Tuesday morning.

Desolation sunrise.  Those peaks are looking decently covered for the first time in years.  Approach with caution.

The storm on Tuesday looks like it will arrive early, and bring a bit more water.  And a bit cooler temperatures.  Daytime highs still in the upper 50s and night time lows still in the low 40s.  Right now, there is a third wave forecast, which is the cold core of the Tuesday storm, coming ashore during the day on Wednesday.  This could be a very cold and wet system.  As it looks right now, the temperature will drop through the day, and precipitation continues into Thursday.  This could bring some snow to the higher coastal peaks to our south.  And with over four inches of SWE predicted, one may be able find some snow to play in nearby.  Get your sleds ready.  More on that as we get closer.

As it looks today, things should be clearing out on Friday, leaving behind a very crisp, and clear Saturday morning.  We could be lucky enough to be enjoying snow capped hills across the bay.  For those looking to get in the water the next week, expect a lot of changing wind conditions.  You may be able to find the right place and time to get in, but the off shore high pressure flow is going on hold as of today.  The snow, on the other hand, will be going off the hook.  Ten inches by Monday, and a few feet by Friday.  And it looks like each wave is colder than the prior, setting up a perfect snow pack.

Prepare for rain to arrive over night, but don't be surprised if it arrives later in the day tomorrow.  Or before night fall tonight.  Expect few breaks in rain this week.  Be stoked if you get a full afternoon of sun.  Someone in the water today said that it felt wintery.  Yes it does.  It does indeed.

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