Thursday, January 28, 2016

Drought only Severe.

That is good news, as the drought level in all of Santa Cruz County has dropped to Severe, from Extreme.  Monterey is still extreme.  OTOH, most of the rain will be missing us these next few days.  It felt like it was about to open up this afternoon.  In fact, I felt a single drop.  I think.  Looks clearer now as we approach sunset.  The storm is still out to sea off the PNW, but it is pushing southeast.  The forecast is for a chance of rain this evening.  It looks like the models suggest is will be well north, with rain showers arriving near noon tomorrow.  Either way, total precip is going to be less than a quarter inch by midnight Friday.  It does look like rain will back off by Saturday morning at sunrise.  So, pretty mellow weather, with light to moderate south winds.  The Sierra Crest will get several inches of water on Friday and Saturday.  There is also a second wave arriving later in the day Saturday that will increase our chances for rain lasting into Sunday.  All in all, a wet three days ahead, although at this point, it does not look like we will see heavy accumulations.  The second wave will hit to our south, so not that much more for Tahoe late in the weekend.

Looks like we get a break Monday with an even weaker short wave for Tuesday afternoon.  It might bring showers.  After that high pressure wants to fill in.

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