Friday, January 15, 2016

Early in, early out.

And over all a good producer.  Light rain started on the west side around 4:20 yesterday.  How Santa Cruz.  And continued right until just past midnight for a grand total of .65 inches, bringing the two day total to just over one inch of rain.  Again, it seems like my forecast from three days ago was spot on, except for when the most rain might fall.  These systems have all encountered the high pressure that remains over the area, and fill quickly back in behind the storms.  Each weakens in it own unique way.  The good news is that the past two storms actually focussed most of their energy, and precipitation on the interior. Nearly an inch of precipitation fell at Carson Pass last night, measuring about seven inches of snow.  That is all good, but lets take a look at the upcoming holiday weekend.

I lost my camera cord, so we are stuck with summer pictures for now.  The Colosseum.  Rome.

This morning should be decent.  The roads will be wet from last night's rain, but the sky should be dry(ish). This may be the driest part of the entire weekend.  That fantasy of sun on Sunday seems like a fantasy now.  Rain will move into the area Friday evening.  It will be mostly light and showery, but more fully developing in the early morning hours of Saturday.  It will be warm as well.  Low 60s during the afternoon, and low 50s in the mornings.  Rain will be lighter, and possibly have breaks Saturday evening through Sunday morning before the next waves arrives.  More rain showers for mid day Sunday through Monday night.  Totals will be significant just to our north, with several inches of rain in Marin and over seven at the bullseye in NorCal.  We will likely see about an inch and a half through Monday mid day.  Perhaps more.  Then the real rain comes.

The models keep flip flopping between a short AR burst, and a regular rain event.  GFS has been trending wetter.  We will need to continue to monitor, but right now the QPF charts have over a four inch bullseye for Monterey Bay, from mid day Monday through mid day Wednesday.  One thing is for sure.  There will be more rain arriving Monday afternoon.  And it could be heavy at time.  More to come.  The rainy season is upon us.  And more is out the back.

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