Monday, December 15, 2014

A closer look at the week.

A decent squall moved through this morning.  Already a half inch or more across the county, with almost a full inch in Ben Lomond a of 9AM.  We are in a bit of a shadow right now, but there are still some heavy bands just off shore and moving toward us from the south west.  I'd expect periods of strong rain through the day, similiar to this morning.  Our yard began to pool in the usual areas quickly this morning, suggesting that the ground is quite saturated.  And we have some excellent drainage.  So, beware of possible flash flooding today, as the water has little place to go right now.  Hope some of you have cisterns still filling up.  We could use some of this water in retention.  Anyway, as we move through the day, the periods of rain should lessen in their intensity and length.  We will transition from rain to showers.  Tonight will be cool, but not cold.  Actually, just a few degrees cooler than the day.  Tuesday could be a good day to get outside if you feel you need to stretch your legs.  You will need some sort of boot, preferably a stomper, and some rain gear.  But the showers should have breaks, especially by mid day.  Not much sun, and about as warm as today.

If you've got the gear, give it a go Tuesday.  Thursday we might see a day like this with breaking sun.  Lighthouse Field.

Later Tuesday, another wave will begin to approach.  This one is a bit cooler.  Models keep jumping around on its water content and whether it holds together and pushes west, or splits, wit the core headed south.  Either way, we should see some rain.  Could be a quite, heavy burst if the thing holds together, with clearing by late Wednesday, or slow, longer and more showery if it splits, with rain lingering overnight into Thursday morning.  Let's look at that again tomorrow.  Regardless, a ridge begins to nose in on Thursday.  A cold storm tries to approach from the north on Friday, but it is questionable if it will dig enough south to bring us any precipitation.  If it does, it will pack a decent amount of water.  Nothing like the last five days, but it kind of looks like a wet or not question.  Anyway, it will bring us a punch of cold air regardless.  Likely the coldest air of the season.  We might not feel it much down here on the coastal plain, with temps warming back up to 60 for the weekend once the sun fully comes out, but inland and at elevation will see a drop in averages.  Looks like a high pressure ridge will fill in and bring sun, and possibly warming temps till about Christmas Eve.

Generally speaking a wet start to the week, with some solid clearing on Thursday.  More rain possible late Friday and Saturday morning.  High pressure beyond that.

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