Sunday, December 7, 2014

This work week begins mellow and ends dramatic

The southern edge of a storm system heading toward Vancouver will drape across the region just to our north to start the week.  Increasing clouds, and a slight chance of afternoon showers.  The models have really pulled back on our moisture, and at this point, we might even avoid any rain at all.  Sure did not look like that was going to be the case today.  But that was mostly a fog bank in town.  Up the coast near Ano Nuevo, it was gorgeous out.  In fact, if you have not already done so, I suggest you visit Rancho Siempre Verde.  They have some trees to choose from, but even better, the views are great, you can make your own wreath and they have some awesome tree swings.  And, with the past week's rain, it was plenty muddy.  ANyway, back to the weather.  Monday we see a chance of light showers, greatest in the afternoon.  Chance are, it will all stay north of the Golden Gate.  Tuesday we will see high pressure nose in, and it could actually get pretty damn nice out.  A new moderate sized long period swell will be in the water, and the winds will be kind of blowing offshore.  Or at least light.  We should see highs in the upper 60s.  You might even find a sunny piece of asphalt that registers 70F.  Pretty much the same for the first part of Wednesday.  Then things take a major turn.

The Nubble Light.  Maine is a bit cooler than we are right now.  

The exact where, and when and how to are still up in the air.  Fine tuning will happen over the next few days.  Still, a major storm system is headed our way.  While the last period of rain had some heavy rain at times, it was mostly the duration that made it so wet.  This looks like it will move through in 50 hours or so, but in that time, we are expecting from two inches in the cities, with up to eight inches in the coastal mountains.  All in just a bit more than two day's time.  Clouds and stiff south winds will build through the afternoon on Wednesday.  Rain will move south through North Bay in the evening, reaching SF before day break, and Santa Cruz in the early morning hours.  ANd when it starts, it is going to start with a dump.  Thursday afternoon and evening currently looks like the brunt of it.  Mind your afternoon commute.  With this much water, falling this fast, there is sure to be flooding and pooling.  There will be hydro-planing.  There will be accidents.  Friday morning will still be gnarly, but the heaviest rain will be well south of us.  Hello SoCal, this is winter.  By late morning Friday, things will begin to lighten up, but still expect heavy showers to moderate rain into the evening.  Then bam, high pressure explodes over us for the weekend.  Big time.

The noon hour GFS has the storm window opening back up as early as next Monday afternoon.  Previous runs suggested a period of high pressure.  We watch and see which way the waffle bakes.  In the meantime, get your outside duties done early in the week, and make rainy day plans for Thursday.  If you've got the gear, and like the show, and are willing to not get too close, the waves should be getting onto the huge size by Wednesday, and with Thursday's storm, there will be plenty of massive crashing waves to watch.  Oh, that reminds me, low lying areas near the ocean will likely flood with the high tide on Thursday.  And power lines are likely to go down.  And trees.  So yeah, be prepared.  More to come.

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